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GOP's McCrory Takes Lead in North Carolina Governor’s Race

Almost all of the recent polling data from North Carolina has brought good news for Democrats, with Barack Obama now slightly ahead of John McCain and Kay Hagan pulling ahead of incumbent Elizabeth Dole in the race for the U.S. Senate.

But the governor's race is an exception: Pat McCrory, the Republican mayor of Charlotte, now has a slight lead over Democratic Lieutenant Governor Bev Perdue. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds McCrory attracting 50% of the vote while Perdue earns 46%.

This is the first time Rasmussen Reports has polled the governor’s race since mid-August, and it represents quite a reversal. In August, Perdue held a six-point advantage. She is currently serving her second term as lieutenant governor. McCrory has been Charlotte’s mayor since 1995.

McCrory is supported by 91% of Republicans statewide and holds a significant lead among unaffiliated voters. In August, the unaffiliated voters were leaning in the other direction. Eighty-six percent (86%) of Democrats say they’ll vote for Perdue.

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In the gubernatorial match-up, 64% of white voters plan to vote Republican and 92% of African-Americans for the Democrat. McCrory leads by 20 points among men but trails by eight among women (full demographic crosstabs are available for Premium Members).

McCrory is viewed favorably by 62% of voters statewide, up from 56% in August.

Perdue’s ratings have gone in the other direction. Fifty percent (50%) now offer a positive assessment of her, down from 55% in the previous survey.

Rasmussen Markets data currently gives Perdue a % chance of winning the election in November while McCrory has a % chance. These figures are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants. It costs nothing to join and add your insights.

Just eight percent (8%) of North Carolina voters rate the economy as good or excellent while 57% say it’s in poor shape. Only thee percent (3%) believe the economy is getting better while 84% say it is getting worse. Not surprisingly, 45% rate the economy as the most important issue of Election 2008. Twenty-five percent (25%) view national security as the highest priority.

Mike Easley, the state's Democratic governor, earns good or excellent ratings from 35% of voters in North Carolina. That’s up three points since August. Nearly a quarter (24%) say he is doing a poor job.

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North Carolina Governor Leans GOP

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Average

RR Mkts

In Trade

2004 Results

McCrory

51%

48%

43%

Perdue

47%

47%

56%

This telephone survey of 700 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on September 30, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


North Carolina Trends: McCrory vs. Perdue

Date

McCrory

Perdue

10/23/2008

51%

47%

9/30/2008

50%

46%

8/13/2008

43%

49%

6/10/2008

46%

47%

5/08/2008

45%

39%

3/20/2008

42%

45%

1/29/2008

38%

42%


Favorable Ratings for Gubernatorial Candidates in North Carolina

 

McCrory

Perdue

Very Favorable

25%

23%

Somewhat Favorable

35%

28%

Somewhat Unfavorable

23%

24%

Very Unfavorable

11%

22%

Not Sure

7%

4%


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.