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Election 2009: Virginia Governor Election
Virginia Governor: Deeds (D) 47%, McDonnell (R) 41%
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Newly chosen Democratic gubernatorial nominee R. Creigh Deeds leads his Republican opponent, former Attorney General Robert F. McDonnell, by six points in the first poll of Virginia voters released since Tuesday’s Democratic primary.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey taken Wednesday night finds Deeds with 47% of the vote and McDonnell with 41%. Two percent (2%) favor of some other candidate and 10% are undecided.

Forty-two percent (42%) say Deeds, a state senator from Bath County, is also more likely to win in November, while 34% give the edge to McDonnell.

Deeds scored a come-from-behind win in Tuesday’s primary, turning what looked several weeks ago like a third-place finish into a rout over Clinton confidant Terry McAuliffe and former state Delegate Brian J. Moran.

These figures on the general election represent a continuation of that comeback by Deeds. In April, Deeds made the weakest showing of the three Democratic candidates in match-ups against McDonnell, trailing him by 15 points, 45% to 30%. But now with one Democratic candidate only in the race, he has solidified support in his own party.

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Eighty-nine percent (89%) of Virginia Democrats now favor Deeds over McDonnell while McDonnell has the support of 78% of Republicans. Among unaffiliated voters, McDonnell has a seven-point lead.

It is worth noting that, following Deeds’ victory, the number of undecided Democrats is significantly lower than the number of undecided Republicans and unaffiliated voters. It is too early to know if this reflects a temporary bounce following Deeds’ primary victory or if it signifies a more lasting change.

Fifty-nine percent (59%) of state voters have at least a somewhat favorable view of Deeds, including 22% very favorable. Twenty-seven percent (27%) regard him unfavorably, with nine percent (9%) very unfavorable.

McDonnell is also viewed at least somewhat favorably by a majority of voters (52%), with 19% who have a very favorable opinion of him. Twenty-eight percent see the Republican unfavorably, including eight percent (8%) very unfavorable.

Those figures, showing that only a modest number of voters have strong opinions about either candidate, suggest that both campaigns have plenty of work ahead of them before the ballots are cast.

Forty-four percent (44%) trust McDonnell more on the issue of taxes, while 36% have more faith in Deeds. Twenty percent (20%) are not sure.

McDonnell also leads Deeds in voter trust in terms of cutting government spending – 39% to 33% - with 27% undecided.

But Deeds has a 14-point lead over McDonnell – 43% to 29% - on the question of which candidate voters feel is more likely to confront Virginia’s longstanding transportation problems. Twenty-eight percent (28%) are not sure who is more likely to confront the issue, which is sure to be front and center during the campaign season. It also is perhaps the most critical issue in Northern Virginia, an area which has increasingly been the focus of most recent statewide campaigns.

McDonnell beat Deeds in the 2005 state attorney general’s race in one of the closest elections in Virginia history. If elected, Deeds will be Virginia’s third Democratic governor in a row, following Mark Warner, who was elected last year to the U.S. Senate and the current officeholder, Tim Kaine, who by law cannot seek reelection.

Sixty-two percent (62%) of Virginia voters approve of Kaine’s job performance, with 27% who strongly approve. Thirty-five percent (35%) disapprove of the governor, with 16% who strongly disapprove.

Fifty-two percent (52%) approve of President Obama, including 39% who strongly approve, while 46% disapprove of the president, with 33% who strongly disapprove. These figures are slightly lower than Obama’s national approval ratings in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Obama was the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry Virginia since 1964.

Along with New Jersey, Virginia is one of only two governor’s races this year, and both are viewed as tests of the president’s popularity and that of the ruling congressional Democrats. In the first poll following the New Jersey Republican primary earlier this month, GOP candidate Chris Christie led embattled Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine by 13 points, 51% to 38%, although historically Democrats rally in the fall. A Republican has not won a statewide election in New Jersey since 1997.

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Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports Election Edge™ Premium Service offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage available anywhere.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

Virginia Survey of 500 Likely Voters
June 10, 2009

Robert McDonnell (R)

41%

Creigh Deeds (D)

47%

Some Other Candidate

2%

Not Sure

10%

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