Pennsylvania has cast its Electoral College votes for the Democrats in four straight Presidential elections, but the competition has recently been too close for any Democrat to take for granted. In Election 2004, John Kerry won by just three percentage points and no Democrat has won more than 51% of the vote in Pennsylvania since 1964.

At this early stage of the campaign, it looks like the Keystone State might be competitive again in 2008. As usual, there is a slight advantage for the Democrats.

In a Pennsylvania match-up of the early frontrunners, it’s Hillary Clinton (D) 45% and Rudy Giuliani (R) 44%. A Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds Clinton with a four point edge over John McCain (44% to 40%), a seven point edge over Fred Thompson (47% to 40%), and a thirteen point edge over Mitt Romney (49% to 36%). It’s worth noting that no matter which Republican candidate is offered, Clinton’s share of the vote remains stable between 45% and 49%. That’s what you’d expect from a candidate who’s been in the national political spotlight for fifteen years. People know what they like or don’t like about her and there is little that will change the minds of most voters on the subject of Hillary Clinton.

The survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations, Inc. Click below to watch the video report of this poll.

Clinton is viewed favorably by 54% of Pennsylvania voters. That’s a bit better than her national numbers, but the general dynamic is the same. She is very popular among Democrats (79% favorable) and very unpopular among Republicans (69% unfavorable). Those not affiliated with either major party offer a more mixed response.

For question wording and responses, click here.

Giuliani is the most personally popular of all the candidates. The former Mayor of New York is viewed favorably by 60% of the state’s voters. John McCain is viewed favorably by 54%, Fred Thompson by 44%, and Mitt Romney by 37%. On the national scene, 44% say they will vote against Romney no matter who is on the ballot in 2008. That’s a point higher than the number who will vote against Clinton.

Clinton has consistently led all Democrats in the Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Tracking Poll. Giuliani has held a less comfortable lead on the Republican side. It’s becoming more and more clear that reporters have been missing what matters in the race for the GOP nomination.

Just 33% of Pennsylvania voters would be more likely to vote for the Democratic ticket if Governor Ed Rendell is nominated for Vice President. Forty percent (40%) would be less likely to vote for the Democrats with Rendell on the ticket. Among the state’s unaffiliated voters, just 26% would consider it a plus to have their home state Governor in the number two position. Thirty-six percent (36%) hold the opposite view.

Voters in Pennsylvania are evenly divided as to which issue is more important for Election 2008—the War in Iraq or the economy. Forty-three percent (43%) say it’s the War while an equal percentage say the economy. A recent national survey found that Government Corruption and Ethics is the top issue nationwide. A majority of unaffiliated voters don’t trust either major party on that topic.

Like voters everywhere, most in Pennsylvania want to see troops coming home from Iraq. Just 23% favor an immediate withdrawal while another 40% want the troops home within a year.

Two-thirds (64%) of Pennsylvania voters say that if U.S. military forces locate Osama bin Laden, they should attack immediately without awaiting permission from Pakistan. Twenty-three percent (23%) disagree and say the military should wait for permission before attacking.

The survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations, Inc.

Rasmussen Reports today released state polling results in Pennsylvania, Missouri, New York and Illinois. Other recent state polls have been released in Ohio, Florida, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Michigan, Oregon, Colorado, and New Hampshire.

In Primary Polls, Clinton leads all Democrats in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida.

The Republican Primary picture is more muddled. Romney leads in New Hampshire, Thompson leads in South Carolina, and Giuliani is on top in Florida.

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