Monday, May 12, 2008

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No surprises in the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the Virginia Senate race--Democrat Mark Warner leads Republican Jim Gilmore 55% to 37%. That’s little changed from late March.

In fact, this is the fifth consecutive survey to find Warner leading Gilmore by a 15-20 percentage point margin. In all five surveys, Warner’s support has ranged from 53% to 57%. Gilmore’s support has also been consistent, ranging from 37% to 39%. Rasmussen Markets data gives Warner an % chance of winning this race in November (results updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants).

Warner is viewed favorably by 66% of Virginia voters, Gilmore by 48%.

The two men are competing for the Senate seat currently held by Republican John Warner (no relation to the Democratic candidate). Almost from the moment the incumbent Senator announced his retirement, the Democrats have been favored to win this race.

More recently, the number of Republican seats that might be taken by Democrats in November has grown significantly. In addition to Virginia, at least nine other Republican Senate seats are in play including in New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado, Oregon, North Carolina, Alaska, Minnesota, Kentucky and Texas.

Two years ago, Virginia was home to one of the biggest upsets in recent memory as incumbent Senator George Allen (R) was defeated by now Senator Jim Webb (D). What made the very narrow loss particularly difficult for many Republicans is the fact that it was largely avoidable. Some believe Allen ran one of the worst campaigns ever.

Today in Virginia, Democratic Governor Tim Kaine earns good reviews—51% say he is doing a good or an excellent job while just 18% say he is doing a poor job. Kaine succeeded Warner as Governor.

The Presidential race in Virginia is a bit more competitive than the Republicans would like. The Old Dominion has voted Republican in ten straight elections dating back to 1968.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.