Friday, June 27, 2008

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United States Senator John Cornyn’s support in his bid for re-election has once again fallen below 50%. While his support slipped a bit this month, the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Texas found the incumbent leading Democratic state legislator Rick Noriega by double digits, 48% to 35%.

Cornyn’s lead in the Lone Star state has decreased slightly from last month, when he had a 52% to 35% advantage. The last two surveys represent a significant improvement from a poll conducted in May that showed he had just a four-point advantage.

Incumbents who poll below 50% are generally considered vulnerable. Though Cornyn has hovered around the 50% support level over the past several months, he is far from the only Republican incumbent at risk in the 2008 elections. Not only that, Cornyn may get some help from the fact that John McCain is expected to do well in Texas. Many Republican Senate seats are potentially in play for Democrats including seats in Alaska, New Hampshire, Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado, Mississippi, Minnesota, Virginia, and Kentucky. So far, just two Democratic incumbents are polling below 50%--Mary Landrieu in Louisiana and Frank Lautenberg in New Jersey.

This month, Cornyn leads 54% to 36% among men and 42% to 34% among women. The incumbent draws support from 86% of Republicans and 15% of Democrats. Noriega is the top choice for just 68% of Democrats while the race among unaffiliated voters is much tighter.

Cornyn is viewed favorably by 53% and unfavorably by 28%. Noriega is still less known to voters. His numbers are 38% favorable and 38% unfavorable, while 25% have no opinion of him.

The survey also found that half of Texas voters (47%) believe the state’s new “get tough” approach to illegal immigration has made life better in Texas. One-in-five Texas voters (20%) think this new approach has made life worse, while another 23% say it has had no impact. Recently, Many Texas cities have taken steps to curb illegal immigration, like verifying citizenship for workers and apartment renters.

On another topic, 41% believe the decision to stop regulating the state’s electricity providers was a failure. A quarter of voters believe it was a success, while another quarter are somewhere in between.

Thirty-seven percent (37%) of voters say the state’s Republican Governor, Rick Perry, is doing a good or excellent job. Twenty-three percent (23%) say he is doing a poor job. Those figures have changed little.

The survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations, Inc.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.