A Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in New Hampshire finds that former Governor Jeanne Shaheen (D) leads incumbent Senator John Sununu (R) 48% to 43%.

Shaheen leads by fifteen points among women while Sununu has a four point edge among men. The former Governor has an eight-point lead among New Hampshire’s unaffiliated voters.

While New Hampshire is typically the focus on Presidential campaigns at this time of year, the state is one of several where Democrats hope to pick up Senate seats in 2008. Sununu won his current job by defeating Shaheen in 2002, but the political environment has changed significantly since that time. Recent polls also show Republican Senate seats at risk in Virginia and Minnesota.

Shaheen is viewed favorably by 51% of New Hampshire voters and unfavorably by 44%.

Sununu’s numbers are almost identical—50% favorable and 43% unfavorable.

Any incumbent who polls below 50% early in the campaign cycle is considered potentially vulnerable. An incumbent who trails the challenger at this point in the process is especially so.

The survey also found that 50% of New Hampshire voters support the recommendation by General Petraeus to withdraw 30,000 troops from Iraq but leave 130,000 troops in place through the summer. Forty-percent (40%) are opposed.

Fifty-four percent (54%) favor government guaranteed health care while 33% are opposed. However, 45% believe it would be better run by private companies while 36% say the government would do a better job.

Only 11% say that the federal government is doing enough to secure the border and reduce illegal immigration.

Rasmussen Reports has also released data today on the Republican and Democratic Presidential Primaries.

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