Friday, June 13, 2008

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The recent flare-up over an old article Democratic nominee Al Franken wrote for Playboy magazine has had little impact on the Minnesota Senate race, with incumbent Republican Norm Coleman holding on to a narrow 48% to 45% lead.

But the introduction of former Governor Jesse Ventura into the race as a third party candidate could change things dramatically in Coleman’s favor, according to a Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Minnesota voters taken Wednesday night.

In a three-way match-up, 24% back Ventura. Coleman’s support drops to 39%, but Franken’s falls ever further -- to 32%. Five percent (5%) are undecided.

Sixty percent (60%) of Minnesota voters, however, say Ventura should not run, although 27% want him to and 13% are undecided.

In early April, Ventura suggested on CNN that he might enter the Senate race but has said nothing definite since.

Dean Barkley, who Ventura named to the Senate when Paul Wellstone was killed in a plane crash, played golf with the former governor Wednesday. When asked later about a possible Senate bid by Ventura, Barkley said: “Part of him wants to, but part of him doesn’t want to leave the lifestyle he has now. He’ll make up his mind at the last minute.”

July 15 is the deadline for filing for the Senate race.

The previous Rasmussen Reports survey, showing Coleman ahead of his Democratic rival 47% to 45%, was done prior to media reports of a column some felt was pornographic that Franken wrote for Playboy in 2000 and disclosure of joking remarks about rape attributed to him in a 1995 New York magazine article about the “Saturday Night Live” TV program. Sixty-two percent (62%) of Minnesota voters say they have followed news stories about these issues somewhat or very closely.

Franken was overwhelmingly endorsed last Saturday by Minnesota Democrats and apologized for his writings and comments in his nomination speech. Forty-one percent (41%) of the state’s voters believe his apology was sincere, a figure that includes 58% of Democrats, 16% or Republicans, and 43% of unaffiliated voters. The Democrat also has been dogged by questions about his business dealings and was forced to pay several thousand dollars in back taxes this spring.

Coleman has consistently maintained at least a small lead over Franken but reached 50% only once, in April. He is hurt by the fact that Republican Presidential candidate John McCain is not doing terribly well in Minnesota.

Any incumbent senator who polls below 50% is considered vulnerable. In addition to Coleman, many Republican Senators currently fall into that category. In fact, At least eight other Republican Senate seats are potentially in play for Democrats including seats in Alaska, New Hampshire, Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado, Mississippi, Virginia, and Kentucky. In Texas, Cornyn was below 50% a month ago. Like Dole, he has gained ground in more recent polling.

So far, just two Democratic incumbents are polling below 50%--Mary Landrieu in Louisiana and Frank Lautenberg in New Jersey.

In Minnesota, an independent Ventura candidacy draws voters from both major party nominees but hits the Democratic challenger the hardest.

Versus Franken alone, Coleman has the support of 92 % of Republicans, 20% of Democrats and 41% of unaffiliated voters. If Ventura runs, the incumbent’s GOP support drops to 79%, and only 15% of Democrats and 31% of those not affiliated with either party.

Similarly, without Ventura in the race, Franken is supported by 73% of Democrats, 6% of Republicans and 42% of unaffiliated voters. But if the former governor runs, Franken pulls only slightly more than half of Democrats (54%), 5% of Republicans and 28% of the unaffiliated.

In a three-way race, the survey shows Ventura with 15% of Republicans, 25% of Democrats and 32% of unaffiliated voters.

Despite the flap over Franken’s writings and comments, Coleman has a statistically insignificant lead over Franken – 46% to 45% -- among women voters. Men give the edge to the Republican 49% to 44%.

Franken’s favorability ratings have changed very little. Viewed unfavorably by 49% last month, the new survey finds 50% of voters feel that way now. Forty-six percent (46%) regard the Democrat favorably, as opposed to 47% last month.

Coleman is viewed favorably by 51%, up from 49% last month. Forty-five percent (45%) view him unfavorably, a drop of four percent since the previous survey.

Sixty-two percent (62%) of Minnesota voters have an unfavorable opinion of Ventura, including a daunting 38% who characterize their view of him as Very Unfavorable. Thirty-six percent (36%) rate him favorably, including 15% who give him a Very Favorable rating, the same percentage who feel that way about Franken. Nineteen percent (19%) rate Coleman as Very Favorable.

Coleman was first elected to the Senate six years ago, with just under 50% of the vote. He came in second to Ventura in a three-way race for governor in 1998.

This survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations Inc.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.