An early look at the 2008 Senate race in Kentucky shows mixed results for incumbent Senator Mitch McConnell.

Against two potential Democratic challengers, a Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds McConnell falling just below the 50% level of voter support. Generally, any incumbent who polls below 50% is considered potentially vulnerable. However, given the difficult political environment for Republicans both nationally and in Kentucky, McConnell’s numbers aren’t all that bad. In addition to holding a 7-10 point lead over both potential challengers in the survey, McConnell is viewed favorably by 56% of Kentucky voters.

McConnell leads Attorney General Greg Stumbo 48% to 41% in the Rasmussen Reports poll. He also leads state Auditor Crit Luallen 49% to 39% (see crosstabs). Other potential Democratic challengers include Congressman Ben Chandler and former Marine Lt. Col. Andrew Horne. Horne now practices law in Louisville. Although the Senate election is more than a year away, McConnell has already been the target of several TV commercials.

At least one ad targeting McConnell focused on the War in Iraq. Fifty-nine percent (59%) of Kentucky voters want the U.S. troops out of Iraq within a year. That figure is close to the national average and includes 22% who want the troops withdrawn immediately. Thirty-seven percent (37%) want the troops to remain until the mission in Iraq has been accomplished.

In Election 2006, Democrats successfully unseated Montana Senator Conrad Burns in part because they launched an early ad campaign against him to help define the race. Burns was especially vulnerable because he had been the largest single recipient of contributions from disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff.

Still, the fact that McConnell is viewed favorably by 56% of Kentucky voters is a strength he will draw upon. Just 36% have an unfavorable opinion. Those figures include 30% with a Very Favorable opinion of McConnell and 17% with a Very Unfavorable view.

Stumbo is viewed favorably by 46% while receiving unfavorable reviews from 40%. For Luallen, the numbers are 42% favorable and 31% unfavorable.

Republicans as a party are struggling in many Senate races heading into Election 2008 including Minnesota, Virginia, and New Hampshire.

While McConnell’s numbers are mixed, Republican Governor Ernie Fletcher would love to have them. Polling for the Governor’s race shows that Fletcher is likely to lose his job this Tuesday.

Republicans seeking the White House are polling better in Kentucky than Fletcher, but not nearly up to the 57% level of support attained by George W. Bush in Election 2004.

See survey questions and top-line results. Crosstabs are available for Premium Members only.