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Election 2008: Alaska Senate
Alaska Senate Poll Shows Stevens Still Vulnerable

Senator Ted Stevens of Alaska has narrowly regained the advantage in his bid for a seventh term against Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, as the numbers seesaw again in one of the nation’s most closely watched Senate contests.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that Stevens, the longest serving Republican in the Senate, leads his Democratic opponent 46% to 44%. A month ago, it was Begich with an equally insignificant advantage, 47% to 45%. This is the third straight poll where the candidates have been within two points of each other.

Stevens’ support is now identical to where he was in April, and still well below the 50% level where any incumbent is generally viewed as vulnerable. He was re-elected in 2002 with 78% of the vote.

New numbers out of Alaska on how Barack Obama, now the uncontested candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination, stacks up with voters against Republican John McCain will be posted Wednesday

Stevens, 84, has been the subject of an ongoing bribery investigation by the FBI and the IRS. He also has been criticized as one of the kings of so-called pork barrel spending on Capitol Hill for backing the infamous “bridge to nowhere,” linking a small Alaska city to a near-by island where its airport is located.

Perhaps in part because of his long-time and well-known ability for bringing federal monies into the state, Stevens is still viewed favorably by 51% of Alaska voters, up 5% from last month. Those with an unfavorable view of the senator have dropped even more dramatically, from 53% last month to 44% now.

By contrast, favorables and unfavorables for Begich, 46 and in his second term as mayor, appear to have stabilized. Fifty-five percent (55%) rate him favorably, compared to 54% last month and 56% in April. He is viewed unfavorably by 36% as compared to 38% in May and 35% the month before.

In the new survey, women voters favor Begich to Stevens by a 48% to 43% margin. Men like Stevens more, giving him a 49% to 40% margin over his Democratic foe.

Seventy-three percent (73%) of Republican voters and 76% of Democrats say they will vote for their respective party’s senatorial candidate. Begich still leads Stevens among unaffiliated voters 47% to 39%, but this is down from May when he had a 53% to 35% advantage with this group.

Three out of four McCain voters (75%) in Alaska support Stevens, up from 68% last month, with the same percentage of Obama supporters backing Begich

Alaska traditionally favors Republican candidates, and GOP Governor Sarah Palin’s job performance is rated good or excellent by 73% of the state’s voters. Only 6% give her a poor rating.

But two years ago, Lisa Murkowski, the state’s other Republican senator, was returned to Washington with less than 50% of the vote.

In addition to Alaska, at least other Republican Senate seats are potentially in play for Democrats including seats in Virginia, New Hampshire, Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado, Mississippi, Kansas, and Kentucky. Susan Collins in Maine has been hovering just above the 50% mark in her bid for re-election. New polling data from Maine will be released on Wednesday.

So far, just two Democratic incumbents are polling below 50%--Mary Landrieu in Louisiana and Frank Lautenberg in New Jersey.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available for Premium Members only.

Alaska
Toss-Up

Latest
RR Poll

Three
Poll
Average

Ras
Mkts

In
Trade

2002
Results

Republican

46%

46%

79%

Democrat

44%

45%

10%

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This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports June 16, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology


Alaska Trends: Stevens vs. Begich

Date

Stevens

Begich

6/16/2008

46%

44%

5/14/2008

45%

47%

4/07/2008

46%

45%

Favorable Ratings for Senate Candidates in Alaska

 

Stevens

Begich

Very Favorable

20%

21%

Somewhat Favorable

31%

34%

Somewhat Unfavorable

23%

19%

Very Unfavorable

21%

17%

Not Sure

4%

9%


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.