Until recently, one of the few settled features in the race for the Republican nomination was Mitt Romney’s lead in the early voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire. That, along with Rudy Giuliani’s ongoing lead in the national polls, led some pundits to believe that the GOP nomination battle had come down to a two man race.

It also led naturally to a series of questions for the chattering class to consider—would pro-life voters support the GOP with Giuliani as the nominee? Could Giuliani hang on to his lead in the February 5 states after losing Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan, and South Carolina?

Now, however, Romney’s lead in Iowa has been seriously challenged. In fact, the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Iowa’s likely caucus participants shows Huckabee with a three-point advantage over Romney. While it’s far from certain that Huckabee will actually win in Iowa, or even remain as competitive as it is today, the very possibility shakes up the race and leads to a whole new set of questions.

Obviously, a Huckabee victory in Iowa would be a serious blow for the Romney campaign. Even a very narrow victory for Romney might be seen as a failure to meet expectations. His entire game plan to date has been built around a strategy of dominating the early states to build momentum. The former Massachusetts Governor certainly has the financial resources to stay relevant, but he would have to limit the damage five days later in New Hampshire and develop an entirely new game plan heading into the February 5 Super Tuesday primaries. (NOTE: Romney still leads in New Hampshire with new polling data to be released later this week).

At the same time, a Huckabee victory in Iowa might help Giuliani by preventing Romney from getting a head of steam before February 5, but there are dangers for the national frontrunner as well. The Rasmussen Reports poll in Iowa found that 21% of Likely Caucus Participants named national security as their top voting issue. That should play to Giuliani’s strong suit. But, in Iowa, 36% of national security voters plan to vote for Huckabee. Twenty percent (20%) of national security voters prefer Romney, and just 15% currently support America’s Mayor. If Huckabee can attract the national security voters elsewhere, Giuliani will have his work cut out for him.

For Thompson and McCain, a Huckabee victory in Iowa would certainly qualify as a very sharp dual-edged sword. On the one hand, it would damage the campaigns of Giuliani and Romney enough to give Thompson and McCain another chance to make their case. But, Huckabee’s ascent might also prevent them from being heard.

For Huckabee himself, while a victory in Iowa would be satisfying, it’s not clear how well he would perform under increased expectations and scrutiny. It’s also not clear what sort of financial resources he could obtain or how strong an organization he could build on the fly.

The bottom line is that a Huckabee victory or near-victory would add even more confusion to an already confusing race for the GOP nomination.

As for the chattering class, it would give them at least two more questions to consider. First, in addition to pondering whether pro-life voters would support a GOP ticket led by Giuliani, they would have to begin asking if supply-siders would support a GOP ticket led by Huckabee.

Second, would a Huckabee victory in Iowa mean a longer race for the nomination? If Huckabee pulls off the Iowa upset, it’s quite possible to envision several candidates picking up enough support to avoid a clear winner on February 5. For all of the top five Republican candidates, it is easier to develop a plausible explanation as to why they won’t win the nomination than to show how they will win the prize.