Friday, July 11, 2008

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The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Washington finds Obama ahead 48% to 39%. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 51% to 43%.

While Obama has a decisive 52% to 35% lead over McCain among women in Washington, the two candidates are essentially tied among men. McCain is supported by 91% of Republicans and Obama earns the vote from 83% of Democrats. Neither candidate has a significant edge over among voters not affiliated with either political party.

Obama is viewed favorably by 59% of Washington voters and unfavorably by 40%. McCain’s numbers are 55% favorable, 45% unfavorable.

The latest numbers from the Evergreen State show a much closer race than last month, when Obama led 53% to 35%. However, they are similar to results from the prior survey in May.

Individual polls can sometimes overstate volatility in a race, especially when the results carry a four-and-a-half percentage point margin of sampling error. One way of addressing this is to look at a rolling-average of three consecutive polls. Using this approach, McCain leads Obama 51% to 38%. Last month’s three-poll average showed McCain up by twelve. The June survey was conducted shortly after Obama clinched the nomination and may have reflected a temporary bounce in his support.

Nationally, the race between Obama and McCain remains close in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

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Washington voters are not enthusiastic about the idea of lowering the national speed limit to 55 mph in order to deal with the current gas crisis. Sixty-one percent (61%) say lowering the national speed limit is not likely to reduce the price of gas and oil. Most (54%) oppose a proposal to lower the speed limit. Those results are similar to those found nationally.

When it comes to offshore drilling of oil wells, Washington voters are divided. While 48% of voters think offshore drilling should be allowed, 41% disagree. Forty-five percent (45%) believe it is at least somewhat likely that such drilling would lead to lower gas prices while 49% disagree. While 42% of Washington voters favor drilling in the Alaskan Wildlife Refuge, 47% do not agree. Nationally, support is higher for offshore oil drilling.

Forty-nine percent (49%) of Washington voters think protecting the environment is more important than reducing gas prices. Thirty-seven percent (37%) disagree and take the opposing stance.

Rasmussen Markets shows that Democrats are currently given a % chance of winning Washington in November. With release of this poll, Washington shifts from “Safely Democratic” to “Likely Democratic” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article. Washington has cast its eleven Electoral College votes for Democratic candidates in the last six elections. In 2004, John Kerry took the state by a 53% to 46% margin.

President George W. Bush earns good or excellent ratings from 33% of Washington voters, while 57% say he is doing a poor job. Nationally, the President’s approval ratings continue to hit new lows.

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