National security is the issue of the day at the Democratic National Convention, but it wasn’t supposed to be this way. Democrats were planning on riding opposition to the highly unpopular war in Iraq right into the White House.

Instead, Barack Obama is begrudgingly admitting the “surge” of additional troops into Iraq has worked, and Hillary Clinton told the convention Tuesday night that, if elected, Obama will “end the war … responsibly,” with no mention of a timetable.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that voters trust Republican presidential candidate John McCain over Obama on national security issues 52% to 41%.

Nationally, for weeks the race between the two men has been a dead heart in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, with oddly enough McCain showing slight momentum this week following the announcement of Joe Biden as Obama’s running mate.

Over half of voters (51%) also continue to believe that it is at least somewhat likely that the United States will win the war in Iraq if McCain is elected, while only 30% believe that to be the case should Obama win the White House. Sixty-one percent (61%) think the United States is not likely to win if Obama is elected, compared to 41% who feel that way about McCain.

At the same time, voter confidence in how America is fighting the War on Terror is at the highest level ever recorded by Rasmussen Reports. The latest national telephone survey finds that 54% of voters now think the United States and its allies are winning the war. Just 19% of voters think the terrorists have the advantage, while 20% say neither is winning.

In terms of national security, male voters trust McCain over Obama 58% to 36%. Female voters, who in most polls heavily favor the Democrat, rank them virtually dead even. McCain leads by a wide margin in all age and income groups, except among those 18-29 and those earning less than $20,000 a year who trust Obama more.

Even 21% of Democrats trust McCain more on national security, compared to seven percent (7%) of Republicans who prefer Obama. Unaffiliated voters favor McCain 54% to 35%.

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A majority of voters (52%) still regard bringing the troops home from Iraq as more important than winning the war, while 38% think winning is the priority. These numbers have been relatively consistent for weeks.

Seventy-four percent (74%) of Republicans say winning the war should come first, but 80% of Democrats favor bringing the troops home. Among unaffiliated voters, bringing the troops home is the priority by a 47% to 38% margin.

If Obama is elected, 68% say it is at least somewhat likely the troops will come home by the end of his first term in office. Only 39% believe that will happen if McCain is elected. In fact, 58% believe it’s not likely the troops will be home in four years if the Republican becomes president. Just 26% think that of Obama.

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