There are three separate races making up the Election 2008 Presidential competition: the race for the Democratic nomination, the race for the Republican nomination, and the general election. All three share one unifying theme—Hillary Clinton.

Among Democrats, Clinton is more than a dominant frontrunner, she is the standard against which other candidates are measured. Barack Obama had a good start to the campaign season but he moved clearly into the top tier by beating Clinton in the first wave of fundraising reports. John Edwards was the party’s Vice Presidential nominee but he earned top tier status by having the early season lead over Clinton in Iowa.

None of the other candidates were able to top Clinton in anything the chattering class considered important, so none of them moved into the top tier. Now that Clinton has equaled or surpassed Obama and Edwards in fundraising and Iowa, the two challengers are struggling. As we noted last week, the only bad numbers for Clinton are those on the calendar.

In the Republican race, the focus is on Clinton because opposing her may be the one thing virtually all factions of the Republican Party can agree upon. Being a political conservative today is defined almost as much by opposing Clinton as it is by opposing tax hikes or supporting conservative cultural views. For those seeking the Republican nomination, taking on Clinton has become an easy and straightforward way to identify with the concerns of base voters. Besides, the GOP candidates would much rather talk about Clinton than the current President of the United States.

But, in the general election, Clinton’s role becomes even more significant. Election 2008 is the first time in more than half a century that a U.S. Presidential election has not included an incumbent or a Vice President seeking the top job. Clinton’s candidacy may be filling that void and has assumed many dynamics typically associated with an incumbent. If this continues, the election could come down to a referendum on Hillary Clinton.

Most polling on general election match-ups involving Clinton look like a referendum rather than a choice between Clinton and a particular candidate. Using a three-poll rolling average to quiet any statistical noise, the Clinton effect becomes clear. The former First Lady earns between 46%and 49% of the vote against each of the top five Republican hopefuls. It doesn’t matter if it’s Rudy Giuliani or Mike Huckabee, John McCain or Fred Thompson.

If you average the results of the top five candidates, you find Clinton’s support at 48%. She also attracts 48% support when matched up with the little known Ron Paul. Adding further support to the notion that it’s all about Clinton is this tidbit-- among the voters who have never heard of Ron Paul or don’t know enough to have an opinion, Clinton attracts the exact same total--48%. So, whether the candidate is a frontrunner or an also ran—or even if voters have never heard of the candidate, Clinton earns about 48% of the vote. These numbers make sense when you consider that Clinton is by far the best known of all the candidates and that opinions of her are split roughly down the middle.

For every attraction that Clinton holds for one segment of the population, there is an opposite reaction in some other segment. A review of recent Rasmussen Reports polling data found that Clinton might attract support from 18% of Republican women. But, 20% of Democratic men are likely to vote for a Republican if Clinton is the nominee.

Additionally while the Democratic frontrunner receives approximately 48% support no matter which Republican is included in the polls, 46% of voters say they will definitely vote against her no matter who the Republicans nominate. These numbers suggest that Republicans are on stronger political ground when talking about Hillary Clinton than when talking about the issues of Election 2008.

Rasmussen Reports conducts national telephone surveys on the Presidential race every night and releases updated data from our Presidential Tracking Poll by noon each day, Monday through Friday.

For the seven days ending October 28, 2007, Hillary Clinton earns 44% of the vote. Barack Obama is second at 20% followed by John Edwards at 14%. Bill Richardson attracts 4% while Dennis Kucinich is at 2% along with Joe Biden. Chris Dodd earns 1% and Mike Gravel is below that level while 12% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters are undecided (review history of weekly results).

The seven day results typically include interviews with more than 1,000 Likely Democratic Primary Voters. This includes both Democrats and those independents likely to vote in a Democratic Primary. In some state primaries, independent voters are allowed to participate in party primaries while in others they are excluded. The margin of sampling error for the weekly update is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Updates prior to July 16 were based upon four days of polling conducted the Monday through Thursday preceding release.

Rasmussen Reports continuously updates general election match-ups and other measures for all Republican and Democratic Presidential candidates.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.