In Texas, a state that she must-win to keep her campaign alive, the good news for Hillary Clinton is that she’s still ahead of Barack Obama. The bad news is that her lead is down to three points after she was leading by double-digits a week ago.

Clinton leads by ten points among women but trails by five points among men. Nationally, Clinton and Obama evenly split the women’s vote and Obama enjoys a slight lead overall.

In a pattern seen elsewhere, Clinton leads among White voters and Latino voters while trailing badly among African-Americans. Clinton leads by big margins among those 65 and older while Obama does better among voters under 65. Clinton leads among Democrats while Obama leads among Independent voters likely to take part in the Primary.

Obama is viewed favorably by 75% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters, Clinton by 73%.

The two candidates are scheduled to meet in a debate tonight. Rasmussen Markets data will be among the very first places to measure the impact of the debate on the race. Just prior to release of this poll, Obama was favored to win in Texas. Current prices show Obama with a % chance of victory while expectations for Clinton are at %. Results are updated continuously.

Eighty-one percent (81%) of those likely to vote in Texas believe that Obama would be at least somewhat likely to win the General Election if nominated. Seventy-four percent (74%) say the same about Clinton. Those figures include 52% who believe Obama would be Very Likey to win and 49% who have such optimism about Clinton.

Obama and Clinton are matched in a tight race for the Democratic nomination. While Rasmussen Markets data now shows Obama as the overwhelming favorite to win the nomination, many believe it will not be decided until the Democratic National Convention.

Fifty-two percent (52%) of those surveyed were women, 48% men. Forty-seven percent (47%) were over 50 and 13% were under 30. Fifty percent (50%) were white, 31% Hispanic or Latino, and 19% African-American.

Rasmussen Markets data now shows McCain with a % chance to win the nomination and Huckabee has a % chance. On the Democratic side, the Markets give Obama a % chance to win the Democratic nomination while expectations for a Clinton victory are at %. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen Markets harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

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