The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Texas finds Senator Hillary Clinton clinging to a one-point lead over Senator Barack Obama. With just over a week to go, it’s Clinton 46% Obama 45%. Nine percent (9%) of voters remain undecided and another 14% say it’s possible they could still change their mind.

Last week, Clinton led Obama by three percentage points. The week before, she had a sixteen-point advantage.

Although Clinton has held on to a very small lead in Texas polling, Rasmussen Markets shows that Obama is favored to win (current prices: Obama % Clinton %).

Clinton now has a five point advantage among women but trails by seven among men. Both those figures are down from the previous survey. Fifty-seven percent (57%) of the sample for this poll are women. That’s up from 52% in the earlier survey, largely because more women expressed a higher likelihood of voting.

Clinton leads among voters 50 and older (51% of the sample). She does especially well among those who are over 65 while Obama carries the day with voters under 50.

Twenty-nine percent (29%) say they have already voted and Obama leads handily among this group.

Clinton is viewed favorably by 78% of the state’s voters while Obama is viewed favorably by 72%. That’s a change from last week when Obama earned the higher favorability ratings. Among those who remain undecided, Clinton earns favorably reviews from 65%, Obama from 56%.

Seventy-nine percent (79%) say that Clinton is at least somewhat likely to win the White House if nominated. Seventy-eight percent (78%) say the same about Obama.

The current survey projects a slightly smaller turnout from Hispanic voters (26%, down from 31%) and a very slight increase among African-American voters (21% up from 19%). It is impossible to project exactly who will show up and vote in a Primary. Rasmussen Reports analyzed a variety of turnout models and found plausible results ranging from a two-point Obama lead to a five-point Clinton lead.

Rasmussen Markets data now shows Obama with a % chance to win the Democratic nomination while expectations for a Clinton victory are at %. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen Markets harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

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