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Race for Democratic Nomination Nationally Is Now a Toss-Up
Monday, February 11, 2008
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Last week, Rasmussen Reports noted that something might have changed in the Democratic race following Obama’s huge victory in South Carolina and high profile endorsements from the Kennedy clan. Today, the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination has changed beyond recognition. On the day before Super Tuesday, for the first time all year, Rasmussen Marketsdata shows that Clinton and Obama have roughly equal chances of winning (current prices: Clinton %; Obama % ). Obama has taken a one-point lead over Clinton in California. He also holds a sizable lead in Georgia. Connecticut, Alabama and Arizona are close while Obama is gaining fast in Missouri. Clinton leads in New York, New Jersey, and Tennessee (see summary of Super Tuesday polls). Perhaps the most important fact of all is that the Democrats award delegates on a proportional representation basis. That means that it won’t matter quite so much who wins and loses a given state so long as it’s close. Since both candidates will win a few states and both will pick up large numbers of delegates, it is highly unlikely that either candidate will earn a decisive victory tomorrow. In fact, it may be more than a month before we know the Democratic nominee. That stands in sharp contrast to the Republican race where winner-take-all states create delegate math highly favorable for John McCain. Rasmussen Reports conducts national telephone surveys on the Presidential race every night and releases updated data from our Presidential Tracking Poll by noon each day. For the seven days ending February 3, Hillary Clinton earns 46% of the vote and Barack Obama earned 39%. Fifteen percent (15%) were either undecided or supporting a candidate who is no longer in the race (review history of weekly results). The seven day results typically include interviews with more than 1,500 Likely Democratic Primary Voters. This includes both Democrats and those independents likely to vote in a Democratic Primary. In some state primaries, independent voters are allowed to participate in party primaries while in others they are excluded. The margin of sampling error for the weekly update is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Updates prior to July 16 were based upon four days of polling conducted the Monday through Thursday preceding release. Rasmussen Reports continuously updates general election match-ups and other measures for all Republican and Democratic Presidential candidates. Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election. Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade. TOP STORIESElectoral College Update: Obama Lead Narrows to 10 Votes 52% Still Have Favorable View of Palin, But Partisan Gap Widens Number of Republicans Grows in August, Democrats Still Have Advantage Bush Approval Up a Point in August Sarah Palin -- Dream Girl By Debra J. Saunders Obama’s Convention Bounce Obama Number One, Palin Number Two As Candidate Voters Most Want To Meet Palin Makes Good First Impression: Is Viewed More Favorably than Biden Obama, McCain Seen As Better Prospects than Kerry and Bush Advertisement
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