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Clinton Wins Pennsylvania: What’s Next?
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
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Hillary Clinton, as expected, won the Democratic Presidential Primary in Pennsylvania. Broadly speaking, the results confirm the demographic and racial divides that have been seen throughout the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination. While enough to keep her campaign alive, the victory is not significant enough to fundamentally alter the race. Barack Obama is still the frontrunner and data from Rasmussen Markets suggests that he has a % chance of winning the nomination. Before voting began in Pennsylvania, Scott Rasmussen noted that Hillary Clinton’s only path to the nomination was to stay close and hope Barack Obama makes a mistake . Following her victory, Clinton unveiled a new approach designed to help force an Obama miscue. As the campaign moves to Indiana and North Carolina, Clinton will try to pressure Obama into another debate. This is a no-lose challenge for her. If Obama agrees to another debate there is an increased chance of a game-changing gaffe. If Obama does not agree to a debate, Clinton will use that fact to raise doubts about Obama’s potential as a general election candidate. Clinton herself offered this assessment before the polls closed. "I think a win is a win…I think maybe the question ought to be, why can't he close the deal with his extraordinary financial advantage? Why can't he win a state like this one, ... states that Democrats have to win." Looking ahead, Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a % chance of winning May 6 in North Carolina. Indiana also votes that day and looks to be more competitive—Clinton is given a % chance of winning among the Hoosiers while Obama has a %. John McCain leads both Democrats nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. However, Scott Rasmussen notes that the fundamentals in 2008 still favor the Democrats . New polling released today shows that just 15% of Americans say the nation is better off than it was four years ago. Seventy-five percent (75%) disagree. Data from Rasmussen Markets gives Democrats a % chance of winning the White House in November. A Rasmussen Reports video analysis looks at how comments from the Democratic candidates about raising the capital gains tax will impact Election 2008. Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. The Rasmussen Reports Election Edge™ Premium Service offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage available anywhere. Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade. TOP STORIESWhat They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls Public Support for Sotomayor Falls After Supreme Court Reversal Plans for General Motors Might Run Afoul of Public Opinion Americans Still Embrace Ideals from Declaration of Independence Republicans Lead Again on Congressional Ballot Massachusetts: 26% Consider State’s Health Care Reform a Success 56% Don’t Want To Pay More To Fight Global Warming 62% Agree Fourth of July Is One of America’s Most Important Holidays 44% Nationwide Have Unfavorable View of Franken Advertisement
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