The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone poll in Oregon shows Barack Obama leading John McCain 48% to 42%. However, McCain leads Hillary Clinton 46% to 40%. Those results are broadly similar to last month’s poll in Oregon. Last August, McCain also led Clinton by three percentage points. Obama was not included in that round of polling.

Both Democrats lead McCain among women and trail among men.

Obama remains the most popular of the three candidates and is viewed favorably by 60%. That, however, is down from 66% a month ago.

McCain is now viewed favorably by 51%, down from 56% a month ago.

Clinton is viewed favorably by 46%, a decline of just two percentage points.

The economy is rated as the top issue of Election 2008 by 31% of Oregon voters. The War in Iraq is a close second at 24%.

Just 15% rate the economy as good or excellent. Thirty-nine percent (39%) say it’s in fair shape while 45% rate the U.S. economy as poor. Just 7% say it is getting better while 74% say it is getting worse. Those figures are similar to views held nationwide at a time when consumer and investor confidence has fallen to the lowest levels of the past seven years.

Forty-one percent (41%) of Oregon voters believe the U.S. and its allies are winning the War on Terror. Twenty-six percent (26%) believe the terrorists are winning. Those figures are a bit more pessimistic than the nation-at-large. Thirty-one percent (31%) believe the situation in Iraq will get better over the next six months while 38% say it will get worse.

Just 32% of Oregon voters say that President Bush is doing a good or an excellent job. Fifty percent (50%) say he is doing a poor job.

Oregon has cast its Electoral College votes for the Democrats in five consecutive Presidential Elections. However, even during that stretch, no Democrat has earned more than 52% support in the state. Three of the five Democratic victories were earned with 47% of the vote or less. In Election 2004, John Kerry defeated George W. Bush in Oregon 51% to 47%.

Oregon is rated as Likely Democratic in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. This Calculator aggregates data from a variety of sources to provide a comprehensive assessment of the state-by-state race for the White House. Data inputs include the latest Rasmussen Reports poll in a state, an average of the latest polling from other firms, Rasmussen Markets data, Intrade market data, the aggregated rankings of selected analysts, the state’s voting history, and national party identification trends.

Over the past month, McCain has gained ground in Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, Colorado, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania. He also hold a solid lead in North Carolina, Georgia and Arkansas. Both Democrats continue to lead in New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut and California (see summary of recent state general election polling). A recent Rasmussen Reports analysis looks at one of the reasons for McCain’s recent gains--the impact of Pastor Wright and Obama’s speech.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Democrats are strongly favored to win Oregon’s 7 Electoral College votes (current prices: Democrat % Republican %). Among Democrats, the Markets give Obama a % chance to win the nomination while expectations for a Clinton victory are at %. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen Markets harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

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