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Opting Out of Public Funding Unlikely to Hurt Obama
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Despite all the agonized media coverage of Barack Obama’s decision to opt out of public funding for Election 2008, the decision is likely to have little impact on Obama’s standing with voters. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that just 30% of voters favor public funding and just 16% say it is Very Important in determining their vote. These results are consistent with earlier polling on the topic.

Although it costs them nothing, very few taxpayers even bother to check off the box on their tax form designating money to the Presidential campaign fund.

One reason voters remain unenthusiastic about public funding is that they don’t see it as a way to reduce corruption. Seventy-four percent (74%) believe that rich people and special interest groups will find way to get around any campaign finance regulations to influence politicians. Only 13% disagree. This, too, is consistent with earlier research showing that voters have a healthy skepticism of the process—57% say it’s not possible to run a Presidential campaign without ties to lobbyists and most say that either Obama or McCain will probably be influenced by lobbyists.

Voters overwhelmingly believe the federal government has become a special interest group that looks out primarily for its own interests. Only 17% say that the government today reflects the will of the people.

The new survey finds that, by a two-to-one margin, voters reject the notion that a candidate’s ability to raise money is a reflection of popular support. Fifty-one percent (51%) of voters correctly identified Obama as the candidate who opted out of public funding while 14% thought it was McCain.

Obama announced his decision to opt out of public funding yesterday in a video e-mailed to supporters. The timing of that decision has already provided a short-term benefit by shifting the discussion away from energy topics. McCain’s support for offshore oil drilling, announced earlier this week, has proven to be surprisingly popular on a topic that is very important to voters. For the Obama campaign, it is much better to discuss campaign finance issues which generate little public passion.

By dropping out of the public funding program, Obama is not bound by any campaign spending limits. While everyone agrees that it is better for a campaign to have more money than less, it remains to be seen just how much of an impact the extra spending will have. Both campaigns will be supported by party organizations, 527 groups, and other organizations. Also, the emergence of the Internet may alter the dynamics of the campaign in ways not yet foreseen.

The other question raised by Obama’s decision will be how it will impact media coverage of the candidate. Many reporters and media outlets are strong supporters of public funding. A recent survey found that voters believe Obama has received the best coverage of any candidate so far in Election 2008 and that most reporters will use their platform to help Obama defeat McCain in November. If the coverage of Obama becomes more critical of the candidate, that could outweigh any gains from his campaign funding decision.

Voters tend to believe that friendly reporters are about as important to a candidate as campaign contributions.

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Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports Election Edge™ Premium Service offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage available anywhere.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

Survey of 1,000 Likely Voters
June 19, 2008

Do you favor or oppose public funding of Presidential Campaigns?

Favor

30%

Oppose

46%

Not Sure

24%

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