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With Clinton in 2008 Race, Ohio is Still a Toss-Up
Tuesday, August 14, 2007
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If Senator Hillary Clinton is the Democratic Presidential candidate in 2008, the race for Ohio’s 20 Electoral College votes might be just as close as it was in 2004. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone polls in the Buckeye State shows Republican frontrunner Rudy Giuliani leading Clinton by a statistically insignificant percentage point, 44% to 43%. Clinton leads another Republican hopeful, Fred Thompson, by the same insignificant margin, 44% to 43%. Giuliani and Thompson have been topping the national GOP nomination polls for months. Clinton is dominating the Democratic field and is currently the party’s default nominee. In an Ohio match-up between Clinton and Arizona Senator John McCain, Clinton holds a three-point edge, 44% to 41%. Clinton comfortably leads in Ohio only when matched against former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. In that hypothetical race, it’s Clinton by 12-percentage points, 48% to 36%. During Election 2004, Ohio narrowly cast its Electoral College Votes for George W. Bush providing him with the final votes he needed for re-election. Two years later, in Election 2006, GOP statewide scandals and the situation in Iraq led Democrats to victory in statewide races. Fifty-two percent (52%) of Ohio voters say that Democratic Governor Ted Strickland is doing a good or an excellent job. Thirty-two percent (32%) say fair while 13% believe Strickland is doing a poor job. Those numbers are much stronger than President Bush records in Ohio. Thirty-nine percent (39%) of the state’s voters give the President good or excellent marks while 16% say he’s doing a fair job and 45% say poor. As for the 2008 hopefuls, Clinton is viewed favorably by 50% and unfavorably by 48%. Giuliani is the best liked of the Republican hopefuls, 52% favorable and 42% unfavorable. Thompson’s numbers are 47% favorable and 39% unfavorable. McCain is viewed favorably by 47%, but another 47% have an unfavorable opinion of the man once viewed as the GOP frontrunner. Romney’s numbers are even weaker, 40% favorable and 47% unfavorable. While Giuliani is currently the GOP frontrunner, it is far from clear that he will be the nominee. Another GOP hopeful, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is hoping that his success in an Iowa straw poll will push him into the top-tier, but he’s not there yet. The survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations, Inc. Ohio remains one of the key battleground states for Election 2008. Over the coming weeks, Rasmussen Reports will release general election polling data for all states decided by five percentage points or less in the last Presidential Election. Today’s releases include results for Colorado, New Hampshire, and Florida. If Governor Strickland was nominated as the Democratic Vice-Presidential candidate, 29% of Ohio voters would be more likely to vote for the Democrats and 31% would be less likely to do so. Among unaffiliated voters, 25% say they’d be more likely to vote for a Democrat while 27% would be less likely. If Senator Voinovich were nominated as the Republican Vice-Presidential candidate, 23% of Ohio voters would be more likely to vote for the Republican candidate. Forty percent (40%) would be less likely to do so. Twenty-eight percent (28%) of unaffiliated voters would be more likely to vote for the Republicans while 36% say the opposite. Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only. Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election. Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
Ohio Survey of 500 Likely Voters
TOP STORIESElectoral College: Democrats 200 Republicans 171 Leaners 149 Toss-Up 18 Most Voters Disagree With Harry Reid’s Fossil Fuel Comments Another Month, Another Record Low Approval for President Bush Democrats Retain Huge Party ID Advantage What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls Colorado: Obama Has Small Lead Over McCain Most Americans Still Hold These Truths to Be Self-Evident 59% of voters say Constitution is Just Fine; 39% Say it Doesn’t Restrict Government Enough Montana: McCain 48% Obama 43% Advertisement
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