Wednesday, August 20, 2008

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Ohio, the ultimate swing state in Election 2004, continues to lean in John McCain’s direction, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.

McCain attracts 45% of the vote in Ohio while Obama earns 41%. That’s little changed from a month ago when McCain led 46% to 40%.

When “leaners” are included in the totals, McCain leads Obama 48% to 43%. Full demographic crosstabs are available for Premium Members. Time is running out to save on Premium Memberships. Sign up now and save. Learn More.

The most discouraging number in the poll for Obama may be the fact that 51% of Ohio voters have an unfavorable opinion of the presumptive Democratic nominee. That figure includes 33% with a Very Unfavorable opinion, up six percent from a month ago.

Overall, 47% of Buckeye State voters offer a positive opinion of Obama. That’s fifteen points below the 62% with a favorable opinion of McCain.

Nationally, the candidates are very competitive in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

In Ohio, McCain is supported by 87% of Republicans while 77% of Democrats say they’ll vote for Obama. The two men split the unaffiliated voters, but McCain wins more crossover vote: 15% of Democrats say they’ll vote for the Republican while just 7% of GOP faithful plan to vote for his opponent.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Democrats are currently given a % chance of carrying Ohio this November. At the time this poll was released, Ohio was rated as a “Toss-Up” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper righthand corner of this article.

Thirty-eight percent (38%) of Ohio voters say it’s Very Likely their state will be the decisive state in the battle for the White House once again. Another 47% say it’s Somewhat Likely. Twelve percent (12%) say this unique role in the Electoral College improves the quality of life in the Buckeye State. Twenty-two percent (22%) say it detracts from the quality of life while 59% say it has no impact.

Just 11% say it’s more important for the state's Democratic governor Ted Strickland to help Obama win Ohio, but 84% believe it’s more important that for him to work to improve Ohio’s economy. Approval ratings for Strickland have slipped in the last couple of months-42% good or excellent and just 16% poor. Two months ago, 47% rated Strickland’s performance as good or excellent. Last month, that figure was 44%.

Twenty percent (20%) of Ohio voters say they’ll vote early while 71% say they’ll go to the polls on Election Day.

Forty-eight percent (48%) of Ohio voters favor drilling for oil in Ohio state parks while 39% are opposed and 13% are not sure.

Nearly half of Ohio voters (48%) say President Bush is doing a poor job, while 37% give him good or excellent marks. Both figures are up a bit over the past month.

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