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Ohio Democratic Presidential Primary
Ohio: Clinton 50% Obama 44%
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After two weeks in which Barack Obama steadily gained ground in Ohio, Hillary Clinton appears to have reversed the trend. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Ohio shows Clinton with 50% of the vote while Obama attracts 44%. Six percent (6%) remain undecided. In addition to the 6% of voters who remain undecided, 4% say there’s a good chance they could change their mind before voting.

For most of the past two weeks, Clinton had been stuck at the 47% to 48% level of support in Ohio while Obama steadily improved his standing from 38% right after the Wisconsin Primary to 45% last Thursday night. In that Thursday poll, Obama had pulled to within two points of Clinton. This is the first Rasmussen Reports election poll to show Clinton expanding her lead.

If Clinton wins a solid victory in Ohio on Tuesday, that might be enough to keep her from dropping out of the race. While most analysts say she needs to win both Ohio and Texas to have a shot at the nomination, the Clinton camp has recently given some indications that it might stay with a win in the Buckeye State and a close finish in Texas.

In Ohio, Clinton now leads by seventeen points among women while trailing by ten among men. Clinton leads among voters 40 and older while Obama has the advantage with younger voters. Clinton does better with workers earning less than $60,000 a year while Obama does better among those with higher incomes. The two candidates are essentially tied among liberals while Clinton has a significant lead (57% to 39%) among politically moderate voters.

Clinton leads by twelve among Democrats while Obama leads by twenty among other likely to participate in the Primary.

The former First Lady also holds a nine-point advantage (52% to 43%) among those who view the economy as the most important voting issue. She also has a fourteen point edge (55% to 41%) among those who consider Health Care the top issue. Obama has a three-point edge among those who say the top priority is the War in Iraq.

Fifty-seven percent (57%) say the economy is the top issue. Seventeen percent (17%) believe it’s the War in Iraq and 11% say it’s Health Care.

Among Likely Primary Voters who believe NAFTA is bad for the United States, Clinton leads by just three percentage points, 49% to 46%. Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Ohio’s Democratic Primary voters believe that the trade agreement is bad for the country.

In Ohio, Hillary Clinton has maintained a constant level of support over the past week, but Barack Obama is rapidly gaining ground in her rear view mirror.

Nationally, Obama and Clinton remain locked in a tight race as measured by the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. According to the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator, the Democrats have a modest early lead in the Electoral College.

In Ohio, Clinton is viewed favorably by 77% and Obama by 72%. Both figures have changed little over the past week.

Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Likely Democratic Primary Voters say that Clinton would be at least somewhat likely to win the White House if nominated. Seventy-nine percent (79%) have such confidence in Obama

Rasmussen Markets data immediately prior to the release of this polling data showed the race in Ohio to be a toss-up (current prices: Obama % Clinton % . Overall, in the race for the nomination, Obama is given a % chance to win while expectations for a Clinton victory are at %. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

Fifty-eight percent (58%) of those surveyed were women, 42% were men.

Ten percent (10%) were under 30, 42% aged 30-49, and 48% were over 50.

Eighty percent (80%) of those surveyed were white while 78% were Democrats.

Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

Ohio Survey of 858 Likely Dem Primary Voters
March 2, 2008

Ohio Democratic Primary

Hillary Clinton

50%

Barack Obama

44%

Not Sure

6%

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