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Ohio: Clinton 47% Obama 45%
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In Ohio, Hillary Clinton has maintained a constant level of support over the past week, but Barack Obama is rapidly gaining ground in her rear view mirror.

The latest Rasmussen Reports poll, conducted Thursday night, shows Clinton earning 47% of the Ohio Democratic Presidential Primary vote. That’s little changed from the 48% level of support the former First Lady received last Monday night and in the previous poll conducted last week.

However, while Clinton’s support has remained stable, Barack Obama has been steadily inching up in the poll. Obama now earns support from 45% of Ohio’s Likely Primary Voters. That’s up from 43% last Sunday, 40% last week and 38% the week before.

This puts the race in the too close to call category as Clinton’s lead is now just two percentage points in Ohio, down from five-points in the previous poll, an eight-point advantage last week and fourteen points two weeks ago.

Recognizing her slide in the polls and the must-win status of next week’s primaries in both Ohio and Texas, Clinton has released a tough new ad raising questions about Obama’s ability to handle national security issues. Obama’s team responded by re-releasing an ad from earlier in the campaign. Looking ahead to the general election, McCain already has a huge advantage over Obama on the national security issue. In fact, just 51% of Democrats trust Obama more than McCain on that topic.

Just 16% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters believe the North American Free Trade Agreement—NAFTA—is good for America. Fifty-five percent (55%) say the trade agreement negotiated by the Clinton Administration is bad for the nation. Those numbers are unchanged over the past week.

Ohio voters still tend to see Obama as opposed to NAFTA while Clinton’s position is less clear. The current survey finds that 58% believe Obama opposes NAFTA, up from 53% before the Tuesday night debate. Seventeen percent (17%) believe the Illinois Senator favors that trade agreement.

For Clinton, 34% believe she favors NAFTA, little changed since the debate. However, 38% now believe she opposes that agreement, up from 31% in the previous survey.

Clinton leads by eight among women and trails by six among men.

Nationally, Obama leads Clinton in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. According to the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator, the Democrats have a modest early lead in the Electoral College.

In Ohio, Clinton is viewed favorably by 76% and Obama by 71%. Both figures are similar to those from just before the Cleveland debate.

Seventy-five percent (75%) of Likely Democratic Primary Voters say that Clinton would be at least somewhat likely to win the White House if nominated. An identical percentage say the same about Obama. In both cases, that confidence is down a bit from earlier in the week.

Fifty-one percent (51%) rate the economy as the top voting issue in Election 2008. Eighteen percent (18%) believe it’s the War in Iraq while 14% see health care as the top priority.

Ohio is one of two states that the Clinton campaign and many outside experts have deemed essential for the former First Lady to win if she is to have a chance of winning the Democratic Presidential nomination. Texas, which also votes on March 4, is the other. The latest Rasmussen Reports poll in Texas shows the same trend in Obama’s direction.

Rasmussen Markets data immediately prior to the release of this polling data showed the race in Ohio to be a toss-up (current prices: Obama % Clinton % . Overall, in the race for the nomination, Obama is given a % chance to win while expectations for a Clinton victory are at %. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

Fifty-six percent (55%) of those surveyed were women, 45% were men.

Eleven percent (11%) were under 30, 38% aged 30-49, and 51% were over 50.

Eighty-four percent (84%) of those surveyed were white while 81% were Democrats.

Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

Survey of 851 Likely Dem Primary Voters
February 28, 2008

Ohio Democratic Primary

Hillary Clinton

47%

Barack Obama

45%

Not Sure

9%

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