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Obama’s Convention Bounce
Friday, August 29, 2008
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Friday’s results from the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll show a bounce for Barack Obama. After leading by just one or two points for most of August, the Democratic hopeful opened a three-point advantage over McCain last Friday—the day before he announced Joe Biden would be his running mate. Then, following the announcement of Biden, Obama’s numbers slid for several days until McCain held a statistically insignificant one-point lead on Wednesday morning. That was not a reflection on Biden, but on the fact that Hillary Clinton was not selected. Obama’s four-point lead reported on Friday morning is based on polling data collected Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday nights. Virtually all of the interviews were completed before Obama’s acceptance speech and it is impossible to tell what will happen next. Normally, the bounce would continue for a few days. But, this year, with McCain’s VP announcement and the Republican convention happening so quickly, we are in uncharted territory. Still, here are some different ways of looking at Obama’s bounce: · Obama’s pre-convention lead of three points has increased by a point. That’s something John Kerry failed to accomplish. His polling numbers peaked just before the convention in 2004. · But, Obama is still below his biggest lead of the year—six points—which he achieved with the bounce from his Berlin speech and surrounding hoopla. · Obama has gained three percentage points compared to a week ago. · Obama is now supported by 83% of Democrats, up from 79% a week ago. · Sixty-six percent (66%) of Democrats have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama, up from 58% a week ago. · Thirty-five percent (35%) of all voters have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama, up from 32% a week ago. Of course, some of the bounce comes from changing perceptions of John McCain. A week ago, Obama and McCain were both viewed favorably by 55% of voters nationwide. Today, Obama is viewed favorably by 56% (up a point) while McCain’s favorable fell by two points to 53%. That’s McCain’s lowest rating since July 8. Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. The Rasmussen Reports Election Edge™ Premium Service offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage available anywhere. Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade. TOP STORIESPublic Support for Sotomayor Falls After Supreme Court Reversal Plans for General Motors Might Run Afoul of Public Opinion 85% Say Parents Should Have Right to Spank Children, 30% Say Teachers Should Be Able to Spank Students Republicans Lead Again on Congressional Ballot Massachusetts: 26% Consider State’s Health Care Reform a Success Americans Still Embrace Ideals from Declaration of Independence 44% Nationwide Have Unfavorable View of Franken 45% of Voters Say One-Party Rule Bad for U.S., 27% Disagree 56% Don’t Want To Pay More To Fight Global Warming Advertisement
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