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Obama’s Bounce, Part II
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Last Friday, Rasmussen Reports took a first look at Barack Obama’s convention bounce. At the time, it was still quite modest but has now grown to represent a fairly typical convention bounce.

For most of August, the Democratic nominee was just one or two points ahead of Republican John McCain in the polls. But polling released on Tuesday showed Obama with a six-point advantage.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for today (Wednesday) shows Obama attracting 48% of the vote while McCain earns 43%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 50%, McCain 45%. That’s down just a single point from Obama’s peak (see recent daily results).

The bounce is reflected in more than just the horse-race numbers. Obama’s favorable ratings increased from 55% before the convention to 59% at the peak of the bounce. The number of Americans who say that the Democrat is too inexperienced for the job has typically been in the low-to-mid forties. However, following the convention, that number fell to the lowest level yet recorded—38%.

At the same time, perceptions of McCain shifted as well. Before the Democratic convention, he, too, was viewed favorably by 55% of voters. That fell a couple of points during Obama’s convention, but McCain’s numbers have since rebounded. The number who say McCain is too old for the job of president jumped to 30% during Obama’s convention bounce.

With the two conventions back-to-back, the two vice presidential picks so close together and Hurricane Gustav in the mix, it’s difficult to put the Obama bounce in historical context.

Both Obama and McCain lost ground in the polls after announcing their running mates. Obama lost three points after his selection of longtime Delaware Senator Joseph Biden was announced and McCain lost two points after choosing Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

Four years ago, John Kerry received a bounce in the polls when he named John Edwards as his running mate, but he received no convention bounce. More precisely, it could be argued that by selecting Edwards, he just got his convention bounce early. George W. Bush already had a running mate heading into the convention and ended up with a very modest convention bounce.

But, in a larger sense, Obama seems to have enjoyed a fairly typical bounce from his convention. He also succeeded in unifying the Democrats, a key objective in a year when there are significantly more Democrats than Republicans in the country.

Now, of course, it remains to be seen how what kind of bounce McCain will get. We should know the answer to that question by next Tuesday or Wednesday but will get hints in the daily numbers along the way. Premium Members can find out first. They receive an advance look at tracking poll data via the Daily Snapshot each morning at 9:00 a.m. Eastern. Premium Members can also review all the data we collect not just the portion we make public.

One big question on the Republican side will be answered tonight when Palin delivers her speech accepting the vice presidential nomination. She enters that forum with modestly favorable reviews from the American public—52% have a positive opinion of her. But she remains little known and those numbers could shift dramatically. Already, 12% believe she is Very Likely to become the first woman President of the United States. Fourteen percent (14%) say the same about Hillary Clinton.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.