Monday, June 23, 2008

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The presidential race in New Mexico has changed little over the past month. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows Barack Obama leading John McCain 47% to 39%.

Last month, the Democrat led 50% to 41%. Obama’s lead was much smaller in March, and in February, the two candidates were tied.

As in most states, Obama polls better among women in New Mexico than men. He has an eleven-point lead among women, and just a seven-point lead among men. Those numbers have shown little change since last month.

Obama’s support comes from72% of Democrats in New Mexico and 15% of Republicans. McCain is backed by 76% of Republicans and 18% of Democrats. When it comes to unaffiliated voters, Obama has a 41% to 34% advantage. The results in that demographic are nearly identical to last month’s numbers.

McCain is viewed favorably by 54% of New Mexico voters and unfavorably by 42%. Obama’s numbers are 57% favorably, 39% unfavorable. Like the national numbers, opinions of Obama are stronger than those of McCain in New Mexico. Obama is viewed very favorably by 34% and very unfavorable by 25%. McCain’s numbers are 21% very favorable and 18% very unfavorable.

Just over half of voters (51%) do not think Obama should choose Hillary Clinton as his running mate. Over a quarter (27%) in the state think he should.

Nearly a third (30%) of voters in New Mexico think McCain is too old to be president, while the majority (63%) does not think his age is an issue. Voters are split as to whether Obama has enough experience to be president. While 46% say he has enough experience, 43% think he is too inexperienced for the job. Those figures are similar to the national average.

Over half of voters in New Mexico (53%) think the most important goal for the next president in Iraq is to get the troops home. Thirty-nine percent (39%) think winning the war is more important. Those results are on also par with national numbers.

The overwhelming majority of voters (74%) in New Mexico think the U.S. government has become a special interest group, while just 13% disagree. Seventy-seven percent (77%) of voters in New Mexico say the U.S. government does not represent the will of the people, while just 14% say it does. Once again, those numbers are similar to those found on the national level.

When it comes to the current gas crisis, 63% of voters in New Mexico think offshore drilling of oil wells should be allowed, while over a quarter (26%) disagree and do not think this should be allowed. About half (51%) of voters oppose nationalizing oil companies.

Rasmussen Markets shows that Democrats are currently given a % chance of winning New Mexico’s Five Electoral College Votes this fall. George W. Bush won the state by 6,000 votes out of nearly 750,000 in Election 2004. Immediately prior to release of this poll, New Mexico was rated as “Leans Democrat” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

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