In New Jersey, Hillary Clinton holds a double-digit advantage over John McCain in an early look at the race for the Garden State’s 15 Electoral College votes. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state found Clinton earning 50% of the vote while McCain attracts 39%. Clinton leads by twenty-one points among women but trails by two among men.

However, if Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee, the race in New Jersey will begin as a toss-up. The Rasmussen Reports election poll finds McCain with 45% support and Obama with 43%. McCain leads by twelve among men while Obama has a five point edge among women. This is one of the few states where Clinton outperforms Obama in general election match-ups against McCain (Florida is another).

McCain does well in New Jersey by attracting solid support from GOP voters and also picking up the votes from 25% of Democrats. This could be an example of what Michael Barone had in mind when he said we will have to throw away the old Red-State, Blue-State electoral maps for Election 2008. Four years ago, John Kerry won New Jersey by seven percentage points. In Election 2000, Al Gore carried the state handily and defeated George W. Bush 56% to 40%.

According to the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator, New Jersey is rated as a Likely Democratic state in the general election. Democrats begin the campaign season with a modest edge in the Electoral College. However, in the popular vote count, McCain starts with a modest lead over both Obama and Clinton.

McCain is viewed favorably by 61% of New Jersey voters, Clinton by 56%, and Obama by 52%.

Thirty-five percent (35%) of the state’s voters say the economy is the most important voting issue. Twenty-one percent (21%) say it’s the War in Iraq while 12% name immigration.

Thirty-three percent (33%) say that President Bush is doing a good or an excellent job while 53% say he is doing a poor job.

Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.