In an election season filled with surprises, New Jersey’s Republican Primary voters may be considering a surprise of their own. The first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of that February 5 contest shows Arizona Senator John McCain two points ahead of former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. The survey was conducted on Tuesday night and interviews were completed before results of the Michigan Primary were released.

It’s McCain 29%, Giuliani 27% and no one else is close. Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee are tied for a distant third at 10%, Fred Thompson attracts only 6%, and Ron Paul earns 5% of the New Jersey vote. Five percent (5%) say they’ll vote for some other candidate and 8% are not sure.

McCain is seen as the most electable Republican candidate with Giuliani a close second.

Seventy-five percent (75%) of Likely Primary Voters believe McCain would be at least somewhat likely to win the White House if nominated. That figure includes 37% who say he is Very Likely to win.

Seventy percent (70%) say Giuliani would be at least somewhat likely to win in the fall, a figure that includes 25% who say he would be Very Likely to emerge victorious.

Just 51% believe Romney would have a chance to win as the Republican nominee. Forty percent (40%) give Huckabee a chance in the fall while 33% say the same about Thompson. Just 10% believe Ron Paul would be even somewhat likely to win.

However, it is impossible to overstate the fluidity of the race in New Jersey. While McCain is barely atop the poll, just 47% of his supporters are “certain” they will end up voting for him. Just 50% of Giuliani’s supporters are that “certain.” For Romney, that number is 43% and just 33% of Huckabee fans are sure they won’t change their mind.

Looked at from the opposite end of the spectrum, 33% of Huckabee supporters say there’s a good chance they will change their mind, a view shared by 24% of Romney voters. Of those who currently support McCain, 14% say there’s a good chance they could change their mind and 11% of Giuliani voters say the same.

Giuliani leads McCain 27% to 23% among Garden State conservatives. McCain leads 39% to 28% among moderates.

Giuliani is viewed favorably by 82% of Likely Primary Voters, McCain by 74%. None of the other candidates reach 60%.

New Jersey is one of many states voting on Super Tuesday, February 5. A week before, GOP voters will go to the polls in Florida, where the latest polling shows essentially a four-way tie between McCain, Giuliani, Romney, and Huckabee.

Giuliani is not competing in this Saturday’s South Carolina Primary. Huckabee led in South Carolina before the New Hampshire Primary. A bounce from New Hampshire put McCain on top and Rasmussen Reports will release new polling data on that race at 2:00 p.m. Eastern today.

In national polling, Huckabee, McCain, and Romney are currently the top three candidates in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Among New Jersey Democrats, Hillary Clinton has an 18-point lead over Barack Obama.

Rasmussen Markets data gives Giuliani a % chance of winning the New Jersey Primary and McCain a % chance. In terms of winning the nomination, the markets suggest that McCain has a % chance of winning the nomination. Mitt Romney is at % followed by Giuliani at %, Mike Huckabee at %, and Fred Thompson at %. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll.

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