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Romney Holds Nine-Point Lead in New Hampshire
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Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has the lead in the first Rasmussen Reports poll of New Hampshire’s Republican Presidential Primary. Romney currently attracts support from 26% of Likely Primary Voters, nine points more than his nearest competitor. New Hampshire is an important state for all candidates but an absolute must-win for Romney. In addition to being from neighboring Massachusetts, Romney is the only candidate to spend money advertising in New Hampshire this early in the cycle.

Three candidates—former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson, and Arizona Senator John McCain—are essentially tied for second. Giuliani and Thompson each earn 17% support while McCain is at the 15% level.

Among conservative voters, Thompson is now running second to Romney in New Hampshire. Among moderates, Giuliani and Romney are virtually tied. There are more than twice as many conservative voters as moderates.

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee earns 3% of the vote. Six other candidates--Senator Sam Brownback, Congressman Ron Paul, Congressman Tom Tancredo, former Governor Tommy Thompson, Congressman Duncan Hunter, and former Governor Jim Gilmore—split 9% of the vote. Twelve percent (12%) are not sure.

In national GOP polling, Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani are on top. Romney is in third in national polling, but first in fundraising.

Romney is viewed favorably by 72% of Likely Republican Primary Voters and unfavorably by 25%. For Giuliani, the numbers are 73% favorable and 23% unfavorable. Thompson earns favorable reviews from 56% in New Hampshire and unfavorable opinions from 26%.

McCain, once considered the dominant frontrunner, is viewed favorably by just 53% of Likely Republican Primary Voters. Even more challenging, he is viewed unfavorably by 43%.

Romney’s numbers in New Hampshire are better than his totals nationally. Giuliani does about the same in the home of the first Primary as he does nationally. For Thompson, the numbers are a bit softer in New Hampshire. For McCain, the rising unfavorables nationally and in New Hampshire have led to severe problems for the campaign. This survey was conducted before reports of the McCain campaign’s financial challenges and staff lay-offs.

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is the only other candidate with a net positive rating in New Hampshire. Huckabbe is viewed favorably by 37% and unfavorably by 35% of those likely to take part in the Republican primaries.

Those with net negative ratings are Tommy Thompson (favorable 29%, unfavorable 42%), Tancredo (favorable 24%, unfavorable 42%), Hunter (favorable 20%, unfavorable 42%), Brownback (favorable 20%, unfavorable 47%), Paul (favorable 17%, unfavorable 52%), and Gilmore (favorable 13%, unfavorable 47%).

In New Hampshire’s Democratic Presidential Primary, New York Senator Hillary Clinton leads the pack. Clinton is also ahead in national polls for the Democratic Presidential nomination.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

Survey of 466 Likely Republican Primary Voters
June 28, 2007

Election 2008: New Hampshire Republican Primary

Mitt Romney

26%

Rudy Giuliani

17%

Fred Thompson

17%

John McCain

15%

Mike Huckabee

3%

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