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NH Primary: Clinton 38% Obama 21%
Monday, July 02, 2007
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The first Rasmussen Reports poll of the New Hampshire Presidential Primary finds New York Senator Hillary Clinton comfortably on top with a 17-percentage point lead over her nearest competitor. Clinton attracts 38% of the vote while Illinois Senator Barack Obama is a distant second at 21%. The telephone survey of 428 Likely Voters found former North Carolina Senator John Edwards in third place with 10% of the vote. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson is close on his heels at 9%. Delaware Senator Joe Biden earns 3% support. Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd and Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich each attract 2% support while former Alaska Senator Mike Gravel is favored by less than half a percent of likely voters. In a broad sense, the results are very similar to national polling on the Democratic race. Edwards is a bit weaker in New Hampshire than nationally while Richardson is a bit stronger. Results for the Republican primary will be released on Tuesday. Clinton enjoys an advantage in national polling among women, but the margin is even bigger in New Hampshire. The former First Lady attracts support from 47% of women in New Hampshire. All of the other candidates combined attract just 40% support from women. Clinton is viewed favorably by 80% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters and unfavorably by 19%. Thirty-nine percent (39%) have a Very Favorable opinion of her while 9% hold a Very Unfavorable view. The gender gap is found again on views of the Senator from New York. Eighty-five percent (85%) of women offer a favorable opinion along with 74% of men. But the level of enthusiasm is different. Forty-seven percent (47%) of women in the survey have a Very Favorable opinion of Clinton. Just 27% of men do the same. Obama is viewed favorably by 80% and unfavorably by 17%. That includes 33% with a Very Favorable opinion and 3% with a Very Unfavorable view. Edwards is viewed favorably by 79% and unfavorably by 20%. For Richardson, the numbers are 52% favorable and 31% unfavorable. Opinion is more negative on the other candidates—Biden (43% favorable, 43% unfavorable), Dodd (45% favorable, 40% unfavorable), Kucinich (31% favorable, 54% unfavorable), and Gravel (13% favorable, 52% unfavorable). In terms of the overall match-up, Clinton’s support is virtually identical among both moderate and liberal voters. Obama does better among liberals, but still trails Clinton by double digits among that segment of the electorate. Obama has raised more money than Clinton in each of the first two quarters of 2007 and has recently released a memo suggesting that Clinton will probably continue leading in the polls until the Iowa caucus results are in. In 2004, Howard Dean was ahead in many polls prior to losing the Iowa caucuses. However, Clinton possesses many advantages that Dean did not have. It remains to be seen whether this primary season is open to change like Kerry’s victory or Dean or if it is more like the prior election where then Vice President Al Gore dominated from start to finish as a quasi-incumbent. Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election. Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
Survey of 428 Likely Dem Primary Voters
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