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New Hampshire: Romney 33% McCain 18% Giuliani 15%
Thursday, December 13, 2007
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Huck-a-mania has not made its way to New Hampshire. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the state shows former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney with 33% support and a fifteen point lead. That’s the third straight Rasmussen poll to show Romney leading by at least fifteen points in the Granite State. The new primary election poll shows Arizona Senator John McCain in second place at 18% followed by former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani at 15% and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee at 14%. Fred Thompson, at 2%, has fallen so low that he now trails both Ron Paul (8%) and Tom Tancredo (3%). Duncan Hunter earns the vote from 1% and 7% are not sure. In September, Thompson earned 19% of the vote in New Hampshire. Other than McCain picking up three percentage points, the current results show essentially no change over the past two weeks for the leading candidates. In that late-November poll, Romney led by nineteen points. Earlier in November he was up by fifteen. Sixty percent (60%) of Romney’s supporters say they are “certain” to vote for him on January 8. That’s an increase from 48% who were certain two weeks ago. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of Huckabee supporters say they are certain to vote for him. However, just 50% of Giuliani voters and 46% of those supporting McCain are that certain. The data suggests that New Hampshire may provide a firewall for Romney that it is not providing for Hillary Clinton in the state’s Democratic Primary. The latest Rasmussen Reports numbers on that race show it is too close to call with Obama holding a 3-percentage point advantage. Still, on the Republican side, the race has the potential to shift. Twenty-nine percent (29%) of McCain’s voters say there is a good chance they could change their mind. Twenty-two percent (22%) of Romney’s voters say the same along with 18% of Giuliani’s and 17% of Huckabee supporters. Among the voters who say there is a good chance they could change their mind, Romney is the second choice for 32%, McCain for 20%, Giuliani for 18% and Huckabee for 12%. New Hampshire is vitally important to Romney because his entire campaign strategy was based upon winning early states to build momentum. But, he currently trails Huckabee in Iowa, the only state to vote before New Hampshire. Huckabee also leads in South Carolina and there is a three-way tie for the lead in Michigan. Huckabee and Giuliani lead nationwide in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. One big difference between Huckabee-friendly Iowa and Romney-leaning New Hampshire is the role of faith and religion. In Iowa, 68% of Likely Caucus Participants said that a candidate’s faith and religion is at least somewhat important in their voting decision. That figure includes 32% who consider it Very Important. However, in New Hampshire, only 14% consider a candidate’s faith and religion to be Very Important. Another 26% say it is Somewhat Important. Huckabee leads among Evangelical Christians in New Hampshire as he does in Iowa. However, in New Hampshire, Romney attracts 37% of the vote from other Protestants. Just 9% of these Protestants support Huckabe. (among this group in New Hampshire, the former Baptist Preacher trails both McCain and Giuliani). Immigration remains the top voting issue for 25% of New Hampshire’s Primary Voters. Twenty-four percent (24%) name the economy and 19% pick national security as the top issue. Romney is viewed favorably by 77% of Likely Primary voters, McCain by 75%, and Giuliani by 73%. Those figures are little changed over the past two weeks. For McCain, that positive assessment reflects a remarkable comeback from the summer when he was viewed favorably by just 53% of Likely Republican Primary Voters. At the time, he was also viewed unfavorably by 43%. Huckabee is now viewed favorably by 57% and unfavorably by 35% of Likely Primary Voters in New Hampshire. Those figures reflect a slight decline over the past two weeks. Fred Thompon’s decline has been so dramatic that his favorable ratings are closer to Ron Paul’s than to the frontrunners. Just 47% have a favorable opinion of Thompson while 46% say the opposite. Paul is viewed favorably by 36% of Likely Republican Primary Voters and unfavorably by 57%. See survey questions and top-line results. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only. Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election. Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
Survey of 732 Likely GOP Voters
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