Friday, May 23, 2008

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The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in New Hampshire shows Barack Obama with 48% while John McCain earns support from 43%.

That’s quite a turnaround from a month ago when Obama trailed the Republican hopeful by ten points. A month ago, Obama’s support may have been dragged down by lingering voter concerns about the relationship between Obama and his former Pastor, Reverend Jeremiah Wright.

Sometimes, individual polls overstate the volatility of a race. That’s especially true when each poll contains a four-and-a-half percentage point margin of sampling error. Over the last three polls, Obama’s support has ranged from a low of 41% to a high of 48%. McCain’s support has ranged from 43% to 51%. It seems reasonable to conclude that the race remains competitive with each candidate attracting support in the mid-forties range. It may take another month or two of polling to determine where this race really stands.

Additionally, of course, Obama has not formally wrapped up the Democratic Presidential Nomination. The way in which he does so could impact the numbers in New Hampshire and nationwide. A Rasmussen Reports analysis suggests that Obama may now be entering the most perilous phase of his campaign. The manner in which he resolves the challenge from Clinton may determine who wins the general election in November.

The new Granite State numbers show McCain attracting support from 75% of Republicans while Obama earns the vote from 72% of Democrats. Obama now leads McCain by eleven percentage points among the state’s very large pool of unaffiliated voters.

Obama is viewed favorably by 56% of New Hampshire voters. That’s up five points from a month ago.

McCain is viewed favorably by 55%, down three points from the prior survey.

In the unlikely event that Senator Clinton wins the Democratic nomination, she leads McCain 51% to 41% in New Hampshire.

New Hampshire is one of the only states to cast its Electoral College votes for different parties in the past two elections. John Kerry won the state by a single percentage point (50% to 49%) in Election 2004 while George Bush won the state by an equally slim margin (48% to 47%) four years earlier. The state is home to an unusually large number of unaffiliated voters (46% in the current poll).

Rasmussen Markets data shows Republicans are given a % chance of winning in New Hampshire this November. Expectations for a Democratic victory are at %. At the time this poll was released, New Hampshire was rated as a “Toss-Up” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

By a 62% to 32% margin, New Hampshire voters say it’s more important to get troops home from Iraq than it is to win the War. Nationally, voters are a bit more evenly divided on the topic.

Just 27% of New Hampshire voters now say that George W. Bush is doing a good or excellent job as President. Most—56%--say he is doing a poor job. Nationally, the President’s Approval Ratings are at an all-time low.

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