While most attention focuses on New Hampshire’s role as the first in the nation Primary, the state is also a key swing state in general elections. Over the last five Presidential elections, Democrats have won three times and the Republicans twice.

At this very early stage in the Election 2008 cycle, the state looks competitive once again. Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton has just a single point advantage over Republican hopeful Rudy Giuliani (43% to 42%) and is even with both Mitt Romney (both at 42%) and John McCain (both at 43%). Clinton does enjoy an eleven point edge over the newest entrant in the race, Fred Thompson (48% to 37%).

Those figures reflect a very slight improvement for the GOP prospects compared to a month ago. The biggest gainer has been John McCain who trailed Clinton by ten points a month ago. Support for Clinton has remained stable but McCain has bounced back a bit both in New Hampshire polling and in the national polls.

New Hampshire voters are likely to see a lot of campaign commercials this year, even after Primary Day has passed. In addition to a close race for the state’s four Electoral College votes, former Governor Jeanne Shaheen (D) has said she wants a re-match against incumbent Senator John Sununu (R). Rasmussen Reports polling shows Shaheen has the early lead.

National polling on the Presidential race shows Clinton essentially even with Giuliani and McCain. She holds a modest lead over Thompson and a slightly larger lead over Romney.

In New Hampshire, Clinton is viewed favorably by 44% of Likely Voters and unfavorably by 54%.

McCain’s numbers are just the opposite—54% favorable and 44% unfavorable. However, Clinton is well liked by Likely Democratic Primary Voters. McCain doesn’t fare so well among those likely to vote in the Republican Primary.

Giuliani is viewed favorably by 51%, Romney by 46% and Thompson by 40%.

Romney’s lead in the GOP primary is shrinking. But, a Rasmussen Reports analysis of the GOP race suggests that nomination contest is getting more fluid, not less.

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