The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Nevada shows the state’s Electoral College votes could be up for grabs this November. Barack Obama leads John McCain 45% to 41% in a poll with a 4.5 percentage point margin of sampling error. Hillary Clinton holds a statistically insignificant one-point edge over McCain, 44% to 43%.

A month ago, Obama had a solid lead over McCain while McCain led Clinton.

Obama is viewed favorably by 53% of the state’s voters. McCain and Clinton each earn favorable reviews from 49%. For Obama, that reflects a six-point drop since last month while McCain and Clinton have both seen their ratings improve.

Thirty-nine percent (39%) of Nevada voters say the economy is the top issue for Election 2008. Just 17% rate the U.S. economy as good or excellent at this time while 51% say it is in poor shape. Just 6% say the economy is getting better while 79% say it is getting worse. The Rasmussen Consumer Index shows that consumer and investor confidence is currently near the lowest levels of the past seven years.

In Nevada, 43% say the U.S. and its allies are winning the War on Terror while 29% say the terrorists are winning. Just 30% expect things to get better in Iraq over the next six months while 39% expect them to get worse. Those figures are a bit more pessimistic than the nation at large.

Sixty-two percent (62%) statewide believe that U.S. society is generally fair and decent. Among these voters, McCain leads Obama by sixteen and leads Clinton by twenty-four percentage points.

Overall, 28% believe that American society is generally unfair and discriminatory. Among these voters, Clinton leads McCain by a two-to-one margin while Obama leads by a three-to-one margin.

Twenty-nine percent (29%) say George W. Bush is doing a good or excellent job as President. Sixty-one percent (61%) say he is doing a poor job.

Nevada has cast its Electoral College Votes for the winning candidate in seven straight Presidential Elections. The last four have been very competitive with nobody carrying the state by more than four percent of the popular vote.

Nevada is rated as a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. This Calculator aggregates data from a variety of sources to provide a comprehensive assessment of the state-by-state race for the White House. Data inputs include the latest Rasmussen Reports poll in a state, an average of the latest polling from other firms, Rasmussen Markets data, Intrade market data, the aggregated rankings of selected analysts, the state’s voting history, and national party identification trends.

Over the past month, McCain has gained ground in Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, Colorado, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania. He also hold a solid lead in North Carolina, Georgia and Arkansas. Both Democrats continue to lead McCain in New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut and California (see summary of recent state general election polling). A recent Rasmussen Reports analysis looks at one of the reasons for McCain’s recent gains--the impact of Pastor Wright and Obama’s speech.

Rasmussen Markets data just prior to release of this poll suggests that the race in Nevada is a pure toss-up (current prices: Republican % Democrat %). Market results also suggest that Obama has a % chance of becoming the next President of the United States. Expectations for McCain are at %. Among Democrats, the Markets give Obama a % chance to win the nomination while expectations for a Clinton victory are at %. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen Markets harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

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