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National Poll: Giuliani 29% McCain 19% Gingrich 16%
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Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) has opened a double digit lead over over Senator John McCain (R) in the race for the Republican Presidential nomination. Giuliani now earns 29% of the vote, little changed from 30% a week ago and 28% two weeks ago. McCain (R) is now supported by 19% of Likely GOP Primary voters, down from 22% a week ago.

While McCain has slipped a bit, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has gained a few points and is now within three percentage points of McCain. Among Very Conservative voters, Gingrich is currently the top choice.

Former Massachusetts Mitt Romney earns support from 8%. Senator Sam Brownback attracts 3%. Former Governor Mike Huckabee and Senator Chuck Hagel are supported by 1%. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate while 19% are not sure.

Giuliani, in addition to consistently leading in polls for the GOP nomination, also leads in general election match-ups against every Democrat including Senator Hillary Clinton, Senator Barack Obama, former Senator John Edwards, and former Vice President Al Gore. However, many pundits doubt that the former Mayor of New York can actually win the nomination. Those who say Giuliani cannot win point to his views on key social issues and his own lifestyle which includes multiple marriages and divorces. Others say that Giuliani’s leadership quotient and charisma will overcome those points for Republicans fearful of seeing a Democrat in the White House.

While McCain continues to hold a solid second place in this polling, a separate survey shows he has lost ground in general election match-ups. In fact, for the first time in any Rasmussen Reports polling, McCain has fallen behind a Democratic competitor, trailing both Illinois Senator Barack Obama and former North Carolina Senator John Edwards. A Clinton-McCain match-up is a toss-up at this point.

McCain may be hampered by the situation in Iraq (considered the most important issue by voters). His personal favorability ratings have declined from 59% in December to 52% in January. Most Americans believe we should be reducing the number of U.S. troops fighting in that country while McCain supports the President’s call for more troops.

See a summary of all match-ups along with favorability ratings and perceptions of the candidates’ ideology. A summary is also provided for Democratic contenders.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

Survey of 579 Likely Republican Primary Voters
January 22-25, 2007

Election Polls 2008: Republican Presidential Primary Contenders

Rudy Giuliani

29%

John McCain

19%

Newt Gingrich

16%

Mitt Romney

8%

Sam Brownback

3%

Chuck Hagel

1%

Mike Huckabee

1%

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