The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Montana shows John McCain leading Barack Obama 48% to 43%. However, he enjoys a much more comfortable lead over Hillary Clinton, 54% to 36%.

It would be truly stunning if Obama could turn Montana into a competitive state this November. George W. Bush won Montana’s 3 Electoral College Votes by twenty percentage points in 2004 and by twenty-five points four years earlier. Even Bob Dole managed to win Montana, albeit by a narrow 44% to 41% margin (Ross Perot picked up 14% of the vote).

The last Democrat to win Montana was Bill Clinton in 1992. He did so with 38% of the vote. The first President Bush got 35% of the Montana vote while Ross Perot picked up 26%.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Republicans are currently given a % chance of winning Montana this November. Immediately prior to release of this poll, Ohio was rated as “Safely Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. Nationally, the race between McCain and either Democrat remains competitive in the Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll.

In Montana, McCain currently leads Clinton by twelve points among unaffiliated voters while he is essentially even with Obama.

McCain is viewed favorably by 56% of Montana voters, Obama by 54%, and Clinton by 42%.

Obama might get some help from the state’s Democratic Governor, Brian Schweitzer—61% of the state’s voters say he is doing a good or an excellent job. Just 14% rate his work as poor.

McCain, on the other hand, is likely to get little help from the President. Despite winning 59% of the vote in Montana less than four years ago, George W. Bush now earns good or excellent ratings from just 38% of the state’s voters. Forty-seven percent (47%) say he is doing a poor job.

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