Wednesday, July 09, 2008

Email to a Friend

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Missouri shows John McCain attracting 47% of the vote while Barack Obama earns 42%. A month ago, the candidates were essentially even. That survey was conducted the night that Obama clinched the Democratic Presidential nomination. McCain had the advantage in earlier surveys.

When leaners are included in the current survey, McCain leads Obama 50% to 45%. Leaners are survey participants who initially indicate no preference for either major candidate but indicate that they are leaning towards either McCain or Obama.

Including leaners, McCain is supported by 93% of Missouri Republicans and enjoys a sixteen percentage point lead among unaffiliated voters. Last month, Obama had a slight advantage among the unaffiliateds and this month he is supported by 80% of Democrats.

Individual polls can sometimes overstate volatility in a race, especially when the results carry a four-and-a-half percentage point margin of sampling error. One way of addressing this is to look at a rolling-average of three consecutive polls. Using this approach, McCain leads Obama 45% to 42%. Last month’s three-poll average showed McCain up by six.

McCain is currently viewed favorably by 58% of Missouri voters, Obama by 50%. Those figures reflect a modest improvement for both candidates over the past month.

Twenty-eight percent (28%) say McCain is too old to be President and 50% say Obama is too inexperienced. National results for these questions and other key stats for Election 2008 are updated continuously at Obama-McCain By the Numbers.

Missouri is a classic swing state in Presidential Elections that almost always awards its Electoral College Votes to the candidate who wins the White House. George W. Bush won those 11 Electoral Votes four years ago by winning the popular vote 53% to 46%.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Republicans are currently given a % chance of winning Missouri’s Eleven Electoral College Votes this fall. George W. Bush won the state by seven points in Election 2004 and by three points four years earlier. At the time this poll was released, Missouri is ranked as “Leans Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

Forty-six percent (46%) of Missouri voters say that economic issues are the top concern for Election 2008. Twenty-four percent (24%) say national security issues are the highest priority. These figures are similar to the national average.

Fifty-three percent (53%) of Missouri voters say it’s more important to get the troops home from Iraq than to win the War. Forty percent (40%) disagree and say victory is more important. Voters see the candidate’s positions on Iraq as the biggest difference between McCain and Obama.

Sixty-seven percent (67%) say offshore drilling for oil should be allowed, only 24% disagree. Most Missouri voters (55%) say that move is likely to lower the price of gas and oil.

This survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations Inc.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.