Thursday, May 08, 2008

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The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Missouri shows that John McCain retains a significant lead over his likely opponent, Barack Obama. McCain attracts 47% of the Show-Me State vote while Obama earns 41%.

A month ago, McCain led Obama 53% to 38%. In February, before McCain wrapped up the nomination and before the Democratic competition became so heated, McCain’s advantage over Obama was just two percentage points. has opened a significant lead over both potential Democratic opponents in the state of Missouri. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds John McCain leading Hillary Clinton by nine percentage points, 50% to 41%. He leads Barack Obama by an even larger margin, 53% to 38%.

Twenty-one percent (21%) of Missouri Democrats currently say they will vote for McCain while Obama attracts 14% of GOP voters. McCain has the advantage among unaffiliated voters.

In the unlikely event that Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic Presidential nomination, McCain has a smaller advantage in Missouri. He leads the former First Lady by a statistically insignificant margin, 45% to 43%.

Individual polls can sometimes overstate volatility in a race, especially when the results carry a four-and-a-half percentage point margin of sampling error. One way of addressing this is to look at a rolling-average of three consecutive polls. Using this approach, McCain leads Obama 47% to 40%. With a three-poll average, McCain leads Clinton 46% to 42%.

McCain is currently viewed favorably by 55% of Missouri voters, Obama by 46%, and Clinton by 45%.

For McCain, that’s down four points from a month ago, but up one since February. For Obama, it’s down a point over the past month and down three over the past two months. Clinton’s total is unchanged from a month ago and down two since February.

Opinions remain more intense about the Democratic candidates. Obama is viewed Very Favorably by 23% and Very Unfavorably by 33% of Missouri voters. For Clinton, those numbers are 17% Very Favorable and 32% Very Unfavorable. Just 17% have a Very Favorable opinion of McCain while just 19% have a Very Unfavorable opinion of him.

Missouri is a classic swing state in Presidential Elections that almost always awards its Electoral College Votes to the candidate who wins the White House. George W. Bush won those 11 Electoral Votes four years ago by winning the popular vote 53% to 46%.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Republicans are currently given a % chance of winning Missouri’s Eleven Electoral College Votes this fall. George W. Bush won the state twice by double digits. Missouri is a classic swing state that almost always votes for the winning Presidential candidate. At the time this poll was released, Missouri is ranked as “Leans Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

Fifty-percent (50%) of Missouri voters favor a summer holiday for the federal tax on gasoline. Forty percent (40%) are opposed. Nationally, voters are evenly divided on the topic. Lower-income voters are more supportive of the tax holiday than upper-income voters.

Thirty-one percent (31%) of Missouri voters believe the federal government needs more revenue to fund important national programs. Fifty-two percent (52%) disagree.

Sixty-five percent (65%) are worried that the next President will raise taxes too much and harm the economy.

Just 32% are worried that the next President will cut taxes too much and harm important government programs.

By a 67% to 17% margin, Missouri voters oppose an increase in the capital gains tax. Fifty-eight percent (58%) believe such a tax hike would hurt the economy.

Fifty-six percent (56%) of Missouri voters own at least $5,000 worth of stocks, bonds, or mutual funds.

This survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations Inc.

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