In Michigan, John McCain has a very modest advantage over both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton during the early stages of Election 2008. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey found McCain leading Clinton 46% to 43% and Obama 44% to 41%.

McCain leads both Democrats by double digits among men and trails by single digits among women. Nationally, McCain and both Democrats are locked in a close race as measured by the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Michigan has cast its Electoral College votes for the Democrats in four straight Presidential elections and it would be difficult for Obama or Clinton to reach the White House without carrying the state. However, the economically devastated state has been trending Republican in recent elections—Bill Clinton won Michigan by thirteen points in 1996, Al Gore won by five in 2000, and John Kerry won by just three points in 2004.

McCain is also essentially even with the two leading Democrats in Pennsylvania, another state that typically winds up in the Democratic column (see summary of recent state general election polling).

A month ago, Obama held an eight-point lead over McCain while the Republican hopeful was tied with Clinton. Since that earlier poll, McCain has clinched the GOP nomination and been endorsed by his former challengers. The Democratic race has become more divisive. McCain wins 83% or 84% of the GOP vote against the Democrats. Obama wins just 67% of the Democratic vote, Clinton 71%. McCain and Obama are essentially even among unaffiliated voters while the Republican has an advantage over Clinton among the unaffiliated.

Michigan is in the midst of a controversy concerning the seating of its delegates to the Democratic National Convention. Michigan Democrats favor a re-vote and a Rasmussen Reports telephone survey found that a do-over Primary would currently result in a tie between Clinton and Obama.

Not surprisingly, the economy is the top issue for 50% of Michigan voters. Just 9% of Michigan voters rate the economy as good or excellent while 60% say it’s in poor shape. Just 6% say it’s getting better while 78% say it’s getting worse. Voters who say the economy is the top issue are evenly divided between McCain and the Democratic candidates. Against Clinton, voters who say the economy is most important favor McCain 46% to 45%. When McCain is matched against Obama, the Democrat leads by just three percentage points among these voters.

Forty-eight percent (48%) of Michigan voters say the U.S. and its allies are winning the War on Terror while 28% disagree (that’s slightly more pessimistic than the national average). Thirty-seven percent (37%) say things are likely to get better in Iraq over the next six months while 34% take the opposite view.

Sixty-two percent (62%) of Michigan voters say that U.S. society is generally fair and decent. Twenty-eight percent (28%) say it’s unfair and discriminatory.

As a result of this poll, Michigan is moving from Likely Democrat to Leans Democrat in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

Rasmussen Markets data immediately prior to the release of this poll showed that Democrats were overwhelmingly favored to win Michigan in the general election (current pricing: Democrats % Republicans %) Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen Markets harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

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