While Democrats are still fighting about whether and how Michigan’s delegates will be seated at their party’s national convention, early polling suggests that John McCain could be very competitive in the state when voters go to the polls in November.

The latest Rasmussen Reports poll in Michigan shows McCain attracting 43% of the vote when matched against Barack Obama. Obama earns 42% while 8% say they would vote for a third-party candidate and 7% remain undecided.

If Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee, it’s McCain 45% Clinton 42%. In that match-up, 10% opt for a third-party candidate while 4% are undecided.

McCain is viewed favorably by 55% of the state’s voters. Obama earns positive reviews from 50%, Clinton from 47%. The Republican hopeful leads both Democrats among unaffiliated voters and also benefits from solid Republican support.

The current results are similar to those from a month ago when McCain had a three-point edge over both Democrats. Nationally, McCain has a slight advantage over both Democrats in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Michigan has cast its Electoral College votes for the Democrats in four straight Presidential elections and it would be difficult for Obama or Clinton to reach the White House without carrying the state. However, the economically devastated state has been trending Republican in recent elections—Bill Clinton won Michigan by thirteen points in 1996, Al Gore won by five in 2000, and John Kerry won by just three points in 2004.

Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Michigan voters say they’ve been following news stories of the convention delegate controversy somewhat or very closely. Just 28% believe a new Primary should be held while 59% disagree. However, a plurality of Democrats favor a revote. Forty-five percent (45%) say it should be held while 39% disagree. A previous Rasmussen Reports telephone survey found that a do-over Primary would currently result in a tie between Clinton and Obama.

Forty-eight percent (48%) of Democrats in the state believe the results from the original primary should count. Forty-one percent (41%) disagree.

If the state’s delegates are not seated at the convention, 16% of Democrats, and 25% of unaffiliated voters say they are less likely to vote for the Democratic nominee.

Forty-eight percent (48%) of the state’s Democrats believe Obama would be the stronger general election candidate against McCain. Forty-one percent (41%) believe that Clinton would be the better candidate. By a 58% to 26% margin, Democrats expect Obama to win the nomination.

At the time this poll was released, Michigan was rated as a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. The calculator factors in poll results, results from Rasmussen Markets, voting history, and other factors to determine a state’s rating.

Rasmussen Markets data immediately prior to the release of this poll showed that Democrats were overwhelmingly favored to win Michigan in the general election (current pricing: Democrats % Republicans %) Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen Markets harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

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