If Democrats hold a second Presidential Primary in Michigan, the race could be one of the most competitive all year. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that Hillary Clinton would attract 41% of the Primary Vote while Barack Obama would earn an identical 41%.

Clinton leads by seven among women and trails by eight among men. Clinton does better with low-income voters and Obama does better among upper-income voters. Obama leads among voters under 50 while Clinton leads among older voters.

Michigan voted on January 15 in violation of Democratic Party rules and Hillary Clinton was the only major candidate to have her name on the ballot. Despite that, she barely won a majority, attracting 55% of the vote while 40% voted for “uncommitted” delegates. There has been talk of a "do-over" primary so that Michigan’s delegates can be counted at the Democratic convention in August.

Separate survey data shows that 62% of Democrats in Michigan favor a do-over while 24% are opposed. Republicans oppose the idea of a second primary by nearly identical margins.

Clinton leads by eight among Democrats while Obama leads by eight among others who would participate. Michigan’s Primaries are open to all voters and the survey indicates that the Democrats would constitute just a little more than half of the Primary Voters. Ironically, this same dynamic worked to give John McCain a victory over George W. Bush in Michigan during the Election 2000 Primary Season. It would be truly amazing if one of the decisive contests for the Democratic nomination took place in an environment where half the voters were from outside the party.

Florida, another state considering a do-over election, holds closed Primaries where only Democrats can vote. Clinton holds a solid lead in Florida.

Among Michigan’s Likely Primary Voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 60%. Obama earns positive reviews from 67%.

If Clinton wins the nomination, just 50% of Obama voters say they would be even somewhat likely to vote for her against John McCain. Thirty-five percent (35%) say they are Not at All Likely to vote for Clinton in the general election.

On the other hand, if Obama wins the nomination, just 52% of Clinton voters would be even somewhat likely to vote for him against John McCain. Twenty-five percent (25%) say they are Not at All Likely to vote for Obama in the general election.

Those results may be impacted by Republicans and Republican-leaning independents participating in the Primary. But, even among Democrats, there is hesitance to support both candidates. Just 60% of Democrats say they would be Very Likely to vote for whoever wins the nomination. Seventy-one percent (71%) say they would be at least Somewhat Likely to vote for whoever wins. Obviously, those attitudes may change over time and they may be impacted by the manner in which the race for the nomination is ended.

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