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Maybe Something Really Has Changed in the Race for the Democratic Nomination
Monday, January 28, 2008
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Barack Obama’s landslide victory in South Carolina was expected. So were most of the details including the huge gap along racial lines. Since we all knew how this would turn out, it wasn’t supposed to change anything. Just like a week ago, Clinton was supposed to be cruising to the nomination. Still, when it was done, there was a sense that something might have changed. Maybe it was the exit poll data suggesting that Bill Clinton’s efforts may have hurt rather than helped Hillary Clinton. Maybe it was seeing how little support the former First Lady received from white males. Maybe it was the way Obama continued to press his case during his victory speech. By the time Sunday was over, things were clearly different. First, Caroline Kennedy endorsed Obama by writing a provocatively titled editorial in the New York Times--“A President Like My Father: Obama will inspire a new generation of Americans.” Then, later in the day, word got around that Senator Ted Kennedy was prepared to endorse Obama. Rubbing salt into the wounds were stories that the Clinton campaign desperately tried to prevent this endorsement and even had the former President call personally to no avail. Will it matter? Hard to tell. The numbers still favor Clinton. But, as every sports fan knows, sometimes the numbers don’t matter. Sometimes things just fall into place for an upset. More often than not, the underdog comes up a bit short—but not always. Today, Clinton is leading in most of the Super Tuesday states and is expected to walk away from February 5 with more delegates than anyone else. But, since the Democrats award delegates proportionally, Obama will pick up a decent share as well. John Edwards will get some too. Add to that the fact that 20% of the delegates are so-called Super Delegates--Democratic National Committee members, members of Congress, Governors, and other party leaders formally unpledged to any candidate. Theoretically, any candidate who wins 30% of the delegates through Primaries and Caucuses could end up grabbing the nomination with the support of the Super Delegates. For Obama, that becomes even more possible if he were to ultimately win the endorsement of John Edwards. It is now possible to imagine a scenario where Senator Clinton wins battle after battle, primary after primary, but loses the nomination. If the Democratic Party establishment becomes disenchanted with the tone of her campaign, anything could happen. Eventually, Obama would have to win some more primaries, but a few late victories could be enough to win the hearts and votes of the Super Delegates. Is it likely Obama will win the nomination this way? No. Is it possible. Yes. And, with Ted Kennedy’s endorsement, it’s a bit more possible than it was before South Carolina. That’s why things really are different Rasmussen Reports conducts national telephone surveys on the Presidential race every night and releases updated data from our Presidential Tracking Poll by noon each day. For the seven days ending January 27, Hillary Clinton earns 40% of the vote. Barack Obama is second at 31% followed by John Edwards at 16%. Other candidates picked up 5% of the vote and 7% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters are undecided (review history of weekly results). The seven day results typically include interviews with more than 1,500 Likely Democratic Primary Voters. This includes both Democrats and those independents likely to vote in a Democratic Primary. In some state primaries, independent voters are allowed to participate in party primaries while in others they are excluded. The margin of sampling error for the weekly update is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Updates prior to July 16 were based upon four days of polling conducted the Monday through Thursday preceding release. Rasmussen Reports continuously updates general election match-ups and other measures for all Republican and Democratic Presidential candidates. Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election. Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade. TOP STORIESWhen the Warmest in History Isn't By Debra J. Saunders What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls Electoral College: Obama 260 McCain 160 77% Say Children Should Say Pledge At School Every Day 68% Say Obama Politically Liberal Labels Matter: Progressive Better than Liberal, Reagan-Like Better than Conservative Voters Have Low Opinion of Congressional Democrats Key to the Economy Black, Youth Voters Continue to Show Greater Optimism in Nation’s Future 68% Prefer “Merry Christmas” to “Happy Holidays” Advertisement
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