Friday, July 18, 2008

Email to a Friend

John McCain has pulled to within ten points of Barack Obama in Maine. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds Obama leading 46% to 36% in the Pine Tree State. When “leaners” are included, the race is even a bit closer, 49% to 41%.

Last month, Obama led by over twenty points in the first survey conducted since Hillary Clinton’s exit from the race. In May, the Democrat had a 51% to 38% lead. This pattern has been seen in many states where Obama enjoyed a bounce after clinching the nomination.

The biggest change this month is among unaffiliated voters. Among voters not affiliated with either candidate’s party, McCain and Obama are now essentially even. Last month, Obama had a 57% to 30% lead among those voters. Obama has support from 78% of Democrats in Maine, while McCain is backed by 72% of Republicans.

Though Obama’s lead has decreased among women, he still leads among this demographic by nineteen percentage points. Among men, the candidates are now even. Last month, the Democrat had a seven-point lead among men.

The economy is a top issue for voters nationwide. In Maine, 46% of voters think it is the most important electoral issue. Of those voters, 56% say they will vote for Obama while 26% will vote McCain. National security is the top issue for 26% of Maine voters. McCain has a 57% to 30% advantage among these voters.

McCain is viewed favorably by 56% and unfavorably by 41% of voters in Maine. Obama’s numbers are 58% favorable, 39% unfavorable.

Maine has cast its four Electoral College votes for the Democratic candidate in the last four presidential elections. In 2004, John Kerry won the state over George W. Bush by nine percentage points. The state is classified as “Likely Democratic” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a % chance of winning Maine’s four Electoral College votes this fall. These results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants. It costs nothing to join, so add your voice to the collective wisdom.

When it comes to the War on Terror, 40% of Maine voters think the U.S. and its allies are winning, while 29% believe the terrorists are. Those results are less optimistic than those found nationwide. Just 20% of Maine voters think Iraq is the central front of the War on Terror, while 41% believe that of Afghanistan. A separate national survey found that most voters do not think Iraq is the central front of the war. Half (49%) of Maine voters think Afghanistan is a greater threat to the security of the United States than Iraq. Just 21% take the opposite view.

Only 32% of voters in Maine believe, despite current difficulties, that the U.S. still has the best economy in the world. Over half (57%) disagree. However, 41% of voters think the media portrays current economic problems worse than they actually are. More voters (49%) think it is more important to reduce gas and oil prices than it is to protect the environment (38%).

President George W. Bush earns good or excellent ratings from just 26% of voters in Maine, while 58% say he is doing a poor job. Voters in Maine are slightly more critical of the President than voters nationwide.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available to Premium Members only.