Sunday, June 01, 2008

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The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Louisiana shows John McCain with a nine-percentage-point lead over Barack Obama, 50% to 41%. McCain is viewed favorably by 55% of the state’s voters, Obama by 45%.

George W. Bush won the state by fifteen points in Election 2004 and by eight points four years earlier.

McCain leads among voters over 40, Obama leads among those under 30, and 30-somethings are evenly divided.

McCain is supported by 86% of Republicans but Obama has just a 63% to 27% advantage among Democrats. The likely Democratic nominee has a seven-point advantage among unaffiliated voters in the state.

Rasmussen Markets data gives McCain a % chance of winning Louisiana’s nine Electoral College Votes. In 1968, Louisiana cast its Electoral Votes for George Wallace as Richard Nixon narrowly eked out a victory over Hubert Humphrey. Since then, the state has voted for the winning Presidential candidate in nine consecutive Presidential elections. Louisiana is rated as “Safely Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

The state also features a very competitive Senate race. In fact, it’s the only race in the nation with a potentially vulnerable Democratic incumbent.

Fifty percent (50%) of Louisiana voters say it’s more important to get the troops home from Iraq than to win the war in that troubled nation. Forty-one percent (41%) hold the opposite view and believe victory is the higher priority.

If McCain is elected, 53% say that the U.S. is at least somewhat likely to win the war. Just 24% have the same expectation if Obama wins in November. However, 61% say a President Obama is likely to bring the troops home within four years. Fifty percent (50%) have the same expectation if McCain is the new President.

George W. Bush won 57% of the Louisiana vote four years ago. Today, just 35% say Bush is doing a good or excellent job as President. Forty-eight percent (48%) of Louisiana voters say the President is doing a poor job.

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