Wednesday, July 16, 2008

Email to a Friend

Barack Obama may trace his roots to Kansas, but new polling data shows he’s not likely to win the state’s six Electoral College votes this fall.

Republican presidential candidate John McCain leads Obama 52% to 32% in the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Kansas voters. When “leaners” are included, it’s McCain 58% and Obama 35%.

Those results are similar to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted in May. In between, a June survey showed Obama pulling within 10 points in Kansas. However, that poll was conducted shortly after he had clinched the Democratic presidential nomination.

Several surveys conducted during that period reflected a bounce for the presumptive Democratic nominee as he basked in the glow of his historic accomplishment. Obama still holds a modest lead nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

In the new survey, McCain is viewed favorably by 66% of Kansas voters while Obama earns positive reviews from 44%. McCain’s numbers are up four points from a month ago while Obama’s are down five.

McCain wins 79% of the Republican vote; Obama is supported by 65% of Democrats. McCain now leads by 17% among unaffiliated voters. The two candidates were essentially even among unaffiliateds last month.

Rasmussen Markets shows that Republicans are currently given a % chance of carrying Kansas this fall. Four years ago, George W. Bush won the state by 25 percentage points. With release of this poll, Kansas shifts from “Likely Republican” to “Safely Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

Sixty-seven percent (67%) of Kansas voters want to see offshore drilling, and 58% believe that approach will help lower the price of gas and oil. Both figures are slightly above the national average.

By a two-to-one margin, Kansas voters favor drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) in Alaska. By a slightly larger margin, they oppose lowering the national speed limit to 55.

Forty-five percent (45%) of voters in Kansas say reducing the price of gas and oil is more important than protecting the environment. Thirty-seven percent (37%) take the opposite view.

Despite George W. Bush’s solid victory in Kansas four years ago, just 42% of Kansas voters now say he is doing a good or an excellent job. An identical number (42%) say the president is doing a poor job.

This survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations Inc.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only.