In Iowa, the site of Barack Obama’s first victory in 2008, the Democratic Presidential hopeful leads John McCain by just three percentage points in an early look at a possible general election match-up. It’s Obama 44% McCain 41%. While Obama has a very modest edge over McCain, the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the race also found McCain with a ten-point advantage over Hillary Clinton, 47% to 37%.

These results mirror what has been seen in many other states polled recently by Rasmussen Reports--when matched against McCain, Obama typically outperforms Clinton. Nationally, Obama leads McCain and McCain leads Clinton. Obama and Clinton are matched in a tight race for the Democratic nomination. While Rasmussen Markets data now shows Obama as the overwhelming favorite to win the nomination, many believe it will not be decided until the Democratic National Convention.

McCain leads Clinton by fifteen points among the states unaffiliated voters. Obama has a slight edge over McCain among that same group. McCain leads Obama by ten points among men, but trails by fourteen among women. The presumptive Republican nominee is even with Clinton among women and has a large lead among men.

McCain is viewed favorably by 57% of Iowa voters, Obama by 56%, and Clinton by 40%.

The economy is the most important issue for 35% of Iowa voters. The War in Iraq comes in second with 17% and National Security is seen as the top priority by 12%. Nationally, Democrats are trusted more than Republicans on most key issues at this time.

Iowa is rated as “Leans Democrat” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. This Calculator provides a daily update of Electoral College projections by aggregating data from a variety of sources including the latest Rasmussen Reports poll in a state, an average of the latest polling from other firms, Rasmussen Markets data, Intrade market data, analyst ratings and more.

Rasmussen Markets data prior to the release of this poll showed Democrats were slightly favored to win Iowa this November (current prices: Democrat % Republican %). Overall, among Democrats, the Markets give Obama a % chance to win the nomination while expectations for a Clinton victory are at %. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen Markets harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

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