It’s finally here. After months of listening to speculation and speeches, Iowa caucus participants will finally have their chance to be heard.

Among Republicans, the first big question is whether the informal network of Evangelical leaders in Iowa can turn out the base of support for Mike Huckabee. If the answer is yes, Huckabee wins. If not, the Romney will likely be celebrating. Romney has built an extensive, and traditional, political organization in Iowa but the candidate has not generated the same type of passionate support enjoyed by Huckabee.

Huckabee needs a victory in Iowa to have any chance at the nomination. Romney could survive a close second, but he will then have to follow up with a victory in New Hampshire next week. If Huckabee loses narrowly in Iowa, he will still be in a strong position to collect delegates down the road. This is particularly true in Southern States and could leave the former Arkansas Governor in an interesting position before the GOP convention.

The second big question for the GOP is about who will come in third. Will it be Fred Thompson, John McCain, or Ron Paul?

Thompson needs a third place finish to keep his campaign going. If he is able to pull it off, he may benefit from being perceived as the most conservative candidate in the field and hope to capitalize in South Carolina a few weeks from now.

Third place for McCain would be a boost heading into New Hampshire where recent polling suggests he has a good shot at winning. McCain could survive in fourth place provided it’s not too distant from third.

Ron Paul could possibly come in third partly because this is a caucus state where passion counts more than numbers. Nobody doubts that Paul’s supporters are among the most passionate in the nation today. Third place for Paul probably dooms the Thompson campaign but has little impact on McCain.

Data from Rasmussen Markets shows that Mike Huckabee continues to be the favorite to win the Iowa Republican caucuses. However, Mitt Romney is also shown to have a good chance to win the first contest of Election 2008.

For trading on the day of January 2, the closing prices showed Huckabee with a 58.0% chance of winning and Romney with a 46.0% chance. Those figures are similar to the last couple of days. If you would like to participate in the Rasmussen Markets, it costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

Tonight, after the Iowa results come in, the Rasmussen Markets will provide the first indication of their impact New Hampshire, Michigan, and the race for both nominations. Because the markets report data in real-time, they will quickly reflect the new reality.

Rasmussen Reports believes that polling to date has presented a good overview of the race in Iowa but that caution should be used in reading the latest polling from Iowa. That’s primarily because it is impossible to determine who will actually show up and participate in the caucus.

The closeness of the race remains a major strategic challenge for Romney who enjoyed a healthy lead in Iowa for most of 2007. He was the only candidate to invest heavily in the state for much of the year and other leading candidates chose not to compete. The entire political world was stunned when Mike Huckabee surged to the lead in early December (Rasmussen Reports was the first poll to show Huckabee ahead). Huckabee increased his lead to double digits in December and other candidates began fighting back. Their attacks had a clear impact and Huckabee’s favorables fell by fourteen points. By the December 17 Rasmussen poll, it was clear that the Huckabee tide had retreated from its high water mark. Since then, the race has been too close to call.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Iowa’s Likely Caucus Participants was conducted December 17 and showed Huckabee and Romney essentially tied for the lead--Huckabee 28%, Romney 27%. In that poll, the man endorsed by the Des Moines Register, John McCain, was in third at 14%. No other Republican candidate reached double digits. There is now a significant competition for third place between Fred Thompson and John McCain.

Before the attacks on Huckabee’s record began to have an impact, the former Arkansas Governor enjoyed a double digit lead in the previous Rasmussen Reports poll. The current results place Huckabee at the same level of support that he had in late November, when he first moved ahead of Romney.

The trend in Iowa confirmed a similar finding in South Carolina where both Huckabee and Romney now earn 33% of the vote. Earlier in the month, Huckabee had opened up a seven point lead. However, while the Huckabee tide may have pulled back from its high water mark in the earliest voting states, it continues to be felt around the country.

In conducting and analyzing this survey, Rasmussen Reports reviewed results for many possible levels of turnout. While the results varied modestly depending upon the turnout model, the overall dynamic was the same in all cases—Huckabee and Romney are essentially even, McCain is a distant third, and nobody else is close. See information on screening questions and the sample used in this telephone survey.

Forty-nine percent (49%) of Evangelical Christians now support Hucakbee in Iowa. While still a very high level of support, it’s down from 62% a week ago.

Among other Protestant voters, Huckabee now earns 17% support, down from 33%. Romney attracts a plurality of these Protestant voters with 30% support and McCain earns 18% of their vote.

Romney leads Huckabee among men but trails among women. Among those who have participated in the caucuses before, it’s all even--Huckabee 26% and Romney 26%.

Sixty-two percent (62%) of Likely Caucus participants say they are certain they will not change their mind before January 3. That includes 65% of Huckabee supporters, 58% of those who prefer Romney, and 55% of McCain voters.

Among those who say there’s a good chance they could change their mind, Thompson and Huckabee top the second choice list.

Among those likely to take part in the Iowa Republican caucuses, 67% now have a favorable opinion of Huckabee. That’s down from 81% a week ago and 76% in late November. The number with a Very Favorable opinion has fallen from 51% to 38% over the past week.

Romney is viewed favorably by 73%, Thompson by 77%, and McCain by 63%. That last figure reflects a six-point gain for McCain.

Just 58% now have a favorable opinion of Giuliani. That reflects a continuing downward trend from 74% a month ago.