The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Election 2008 shows Arizona Senator John McCain (R) leading New York Senator Hillary Clinton (D) by just two percentage points, 47% to 45% (see crosstabs). While the “lead” is statistically insignificant, it’s the first time since May that McCain has had any advantage over Clinton.

The election poll also found Clinton leading former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney 47% to 42%. But, Romney is gaining some ground on the Democratic frontrunner. Romney trailed Clinton by six in October, by nine in September, and by eleven in August.

With just one exception, the 42% figure is Romney’s highest total in ten match-ups with Clinton dating back to last December.

While Romney has gained ground recently, McCain’s numbers have been actually fairly steady. In October, Clinton was ahead of the Arizona Senator by just a single percentage point. In fact, this is the fifth straight Rasmussen Reports poll showing Clinton and McCain within two points of each other.

When matched against McCain, Clinton’s level of support has stayed between 44% and 47% in thirteen out of fifteen national election polls conducted by Rasmussen Reports. Once, she was a point above that range and once a point below (see history).

McCain’s support was between 44% and 49% in eight election polls conducted between November of last year and May 2007. During June and July, McCain’s support sank to 42% and 38% respectively while his campaign struggled during the debate on “comprehensive” immigration reform. Since then, McCain has partially recovered and has earned between 43% and 47% of the vote in the last five match-ups with Clinton.

Individual polls can sometimes overstate volatility in a race, especially when the results carry a four percentage point margin of sampling error. One way of addressing this is to look at a rolling-average of three consecutive polls. Using this approach, Clinton and McCain are currently tied at 45% each. In the previous three poll average (for the three polls ending in October), it was Clinton 45% McCain 44%.

Using the three-poll rolling average basis, Clinton now leads Romney 48% to 41%. That’s a slightly smaller gap than the nine-point lead Clinton enjoyed in the previous three poll average. Romney leads the Republican race in Iowa and New Hampshire, but struggles in national polls.

Senator McCain descended from being the presumptive (but never quite actual) frontrunner in this season's GOP nomination race to a candidate struggling for relevance. His campaign collapsed in mid-summer following fierce public opposition to his immigration proposal and funding problems.

But given how fluid the Republican nominating contest is proving to be, McCain may have a chance to jump-start his campaign. His strong performance in general-election match-ups with top Democrats may help. McCain is virtually tied with Senator Barack Obama and trails former Senator John Edwards by a modest amount. At the moment, McCain polls better against Clinton than either Rudy Giuliani or Fred Thompson.

Clinton leads the Democratic race in both national polling and in the early voting states of New Hampshire and Iowa. She has been battered by criticism of apparent waffling on a question related to illegal immigrants in the most recent Democratic debate. In reality, the impact has been more from discussion of the incident rather than the debate itself. Very few people were actually watching live when Clinton stumbled and it is quite surprising that the story has continued for over a week.

On the underlying issue that caused Clinton to stumble, Rasmussen Reports polling shows that voters nationwide strongly oppose drivers’ licenses for illegal immigrants. That’s also true in New Hampshire where both Republican and Democratic Primary Voters oppose the policy. In a new ad in New Hampshire, Romney mentions that he opposed driver's licenses for illegal immigrants.

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