The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds New York Senator Hillary Clinton (D) tied with former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson (R) in an Election 2008 match-up. Both candidates attract support from 45% of voters. Given a Clinton-Thompson match-up, 5% of voters say they’d pull the lever for some other candidate and 4% are not sure.

The survey also found Clinton holding a four-point advantage over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney (R), 46% to 42%. In that match-up, 9% would prefer some other candidate and 3% are not sure. The survey was conducted June 27-28, 2007, just before the July 4th holiday festivities began to unfold.

Compared to our previous survey of these matchups, conducted early in June, Clinton has lost a net five points against both Thompson and Romney. In May, Clinton led both of these GOP hopefuls by three points.

Clinton has consistently been atop the national polls for the Democratic Presidential nomination. She also leads solidly in New Hampshire, attracting more support from women than all the other candidates combined.

Among those seeking the Republican Presidential nomination, Thompson has recently vaulted to the top of the polls and holds a narrow lead over former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R). Romney is currently in a battle for third place with Arizona Senator John McCain (R) in the national polls, but Romney has a nine-point edge in New Hampshire.

Clinton, a truly national figure since 1992, is far and away the best known of all the Presidential candidates. Just about everybody has an opinion about the former First Lady and those opinions are more strongly felt than for other candidates. Overall, the number of voters with positive and negative feelings has remained roughly equal throughout the year—49% favorable and 48% unfavorable in the latest polling.

The number with a Very Favorable opinion has dipped slightly in recent months, but that’s still higher than for any other candidate (though Fred Thompson is currently close at 19%). Thirty percent (30%) have a Very Unfavorable opinion of Clinton. That’s more than ten points higher than any other current candidate (Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R) tops Clinton in this category but does not currently seem likely to seek the GOP nomination in 2008).

Because Clinton generates such strong feelings, all general election match-ups involving her are competitive. That’s true even if the Republican candidate is unknown. In fact, Clinton’s support stays between 45% and 50% when matched against any of seven potential Republican candidates. She reaches the 50% mark only against Gingrich. In these same match-ups, Clinton’s opponent earns between 41% and 46% of the vote regardless of how unknown the Republican is.

A separate survey has found that 46% of Americans say they will definitely vote against Clinton if she is on the ballot in 2008.

All of this suggests that caution must be used when comparing how Clinton does in general election match-ups alongside how well other Democratic candidates might do. Democratic hopefuls such as Illinois Senator Barack Obama (D) and former North Carolina Senator John Edwards are not nearly as well known as Clinton. If they were to end up as the nominee instead of Clinton, public opinion towards either man could move far more than it would move for Clinton. And, while that creates a bigger upside potential, it also creates potential in the opposite direction.

Another difference is that an election cycle with Edwards, Obama, or anybody but Clinton atop the Democratic ticket might evolve into a choice between that candidate and the GOP hopeful. Democrats will try to make it a referendum on the Bush Administration while the GOP candidate will want to talk about the post-Bush era. If Clinton is nominated, the election is much more likely to be focused on her and it will be harder to make it a referendum on Bush.

Finally, if Clinton is the nominee, third party candidates could make the difference. It is hard to see Clinton winning a majority of the vote, but it is also hard to see her falling much below the mid-40s in terms of popular support. If candidates on the right drain a few points away from the GOP, that could elect the New York Senator as the nation’s first woman President. On the other hand, any challenges from the left would significantly complicate Clinton’s challenge.

This doesn’t necessarily mean that Clinton would be a better or a worse choice than other Democrats in terms of electability. It simply means that the dynamic is different with her.

Rasmussen Reports continuously updates favorability ratings and general election match-ups for all Democratic and Republican candidates. Also available are ratings for Members of Congress, Other Political Figures, and Journalists.

Rasmussen Reports also regularly tracks public attitudes towards Congress, the War on Terror, and other topics.

Rasmussen Reports conducts ongoing surveys measuring the attitudes of Americans on the news of the day such as bringing troops home from Iraq. Recent surveys have asked about American Idol, DC Madam, gun control, the Supreme Court decision on partial-birth abortion, and the subpoenas issued to Condoleezza Rice. The latest updates can be found on the Rasmussen Reports home page.

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