Monday, September 29, 2008

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Overview

Polling this week in Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia shows that Barack Obama has gained a net 3 to 5 percentage points in each state compared to the previous Fox News/ Rasmussen Reports poll.

In Pennsylvania, Obama now leads by eight percentage points, 50% to 42%.

In Virginia, it’s Obama 50% and McCain 47%.

The candidates are within a single point of each other in Colorado (Obama 49%, McCain 48%), Florida (Obama 47%, McCain 47%), and Ohio (McCain 48% Obama 47%).

National polls and other state polling conducted by Rasmussen Reports indicate that Obama gained ground before last Friday night’s debate, probably as a result of the economic turmoil that has dominated the news. Since the debate, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows little change in the national numbers.

Regardless of the timing and the cause, however, the overriding trend from the past week is a shift in the battleground states that favors Obama.

A number of other themes emerge from the data that are worth noting:

· In all states, Obama gained ground among unaffiliated voters. While the sample sizes in each state are small and the shifts often modest, the consistency of the result is worth noting.

· Obama’s favorable ratings are up slightly in all five states.

· Favorables for McCain are up slightly in three states (Colorado, Florida, Pennsylvania) and down slightly in two (Ohio, Virginia).

· The number saying that they would not be comfortable with Obama as President fell in all five states. In all five, the number expressing such discomfort is at the lowest level since tracking began on September 7.

· The number not comfortable with McCain as President increased by three percentage points in Florida, was unchanged in Virginia, and fell very slightly in the other states.

· The number of undecided voters increased by two percentage points each in Florida and Ohio.

· The number supporting third party candidates increased from 2% to 5% in Pennsylvania.

· Neither candidate attracts more than 50% of the vote in any of the battleground states, although Obama is right at the 50% mark in Pennsylvania and Virginia.

· When it comes to who voters would trust with the toughest decision of their life, Obama gained ground in three states and there was no net change in Colorado or Pennsylvania. However, Obama had already gained ground on this question a week ago in Pennsylvania.

Things to Look For

The increasing numbers of undecided and third party votes in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida suggest opportunities for both candidates in the coming week. Given the overall trends, these voters may be having doubts about McCain but are not yet ready to vote for Obama.

Both nationally, and in the battleground states, it will be important to see if Obama can move above the 50% level of support in the coming week.

While the Vice Presidential debate is the biggest scheduled event of the week, it is important to remember that the economic news had a bigger impact last week than the Presidential debate.

Selected Data

NOTE: Numbers in parentheses indicate results from September 21 surveys for all states but Colorado. Numbers in parentheses for Colorado indicate results from September 14.
NOTE: McKinney not on ballot in Pennsylvania.

Background

Rasmussen Reports conducted five state telephone surveys in partnership with Fox News Channel on September 28, 2008. The surveys were conducted in Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. A total of 500 Likely Voters were interviewed in each state using the Rasmussen Reports automated telephone survey methodology (see www.RasmussenReports.com for details).

The margin of sampling error for the full sample in each state poll is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Caution should be used in interpreting subsets of the data as such results will have an even larger margin of sampling error. It is anticipated that larger sample sizes will be used later in the election season which will allow for a more detailed examination of demographic distinctions.

In four of the five states—Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia—Rasmussen Reports had conducted similar surveys for Fox News on September 7, September 14, and September 21. In Colorado, Fox News/Rasmussen Reports polls were conducted September 7 and September 14.